Posts Tagged ‘Egypt’

What difference does it make if John Brennan is confirmed?

Wednesday, February 27th, 2013

In the end, what difference does it make if John Brennan is confirmed as CIA Director by the Senate?

1. Well, for one thing, it may be the last chance for the Senate to get control of a failed foreign policy, and to actually put someone in who would complement Secretary of State John Kerry–as a member of a team that can get the nation’s foreign policy back on a track that might avoid further disasters, and maybe even lead to some successes.

Vali Nasr, the Dean of the Johns Hopkins School of International Affairs, is publishing a book, The Dispensable Nation, which is coming out in April and is already making waves as one of the first hard-hitting assessments of Obama’s foreign policy in his first term.. And the story isn’t pretty. Obama has led the nation into one failure after another, but liberals and Democrats have been unwilling to hold him accountable. The president, after all, perfectly represents the mood of the American people, by and large, who just want to get out of Bush’s wars and focus on domestic issues.

But the world exists, regardless of what the public in general want, and it keeps turning. It keeps spinning, in fact, in ways that often seem adverse to U.S. interests, and sometimes it seems even to be spinning out of control.

Brennan’s confirmation will tilt the balance of Obama’s foreign policy team back to the place where it has been for the last four years, with Obama mainly interested in killing terrorists by drones, while at the same time dragging his feet in other international crIsis arenas, such as Syria, Mali, or even Libya (until the French and the British dragged the U.S. into it, once Security Council authorzation was secured). Obama, in the end, is not interested in foreign policy, and doesn’t know how to conduct it. So he, and we, need a strong team.

2. Brennan is the High Priest of the war on terror, the Holy Warrior leading “The Last Crusade” against the Islamic terrorist infidels. And the strategy is simple–simply to kill them before they kill us. He is not plagued by self-doubt. Obama, in becoming a warrior himself, may have modeled himself on Brennan.

The only problem is that we may have been so busy fighting this war of  targeted executions that we failed to notice, much less try to influence, strategic developments of enormous significance.

While Brennan was busy managing the “kill lists” and coordinating drone strikes on the infidels, Obama was giving up the ship to Mohamed Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, offering Morsi  support and not criticism when he launched his legal coup d’etat on November 22, abrogating the rule of law in the nascent democracy of Egypt. Morsi pushed through his illegitimate constitution, shutting down the Constitutional Court with brown-shirt tactics in the street.

What difference does that make?

Well, for one thing, al-Azhar university, which is the highest center of Islamic learning in the city which is the cultural capital of the Arab world, is now facing increasing pressure from the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafists to assume a more fundamentalist approach to religious issues. These include those covered by the sharia, or Islamic law, now raised to a position of preeminence in Morsi’s Islamist constitution.

In effect, Brennan was leading Obama to go and try to kill terrorist leaders with drones, while the geotectonic plates of the Middle East were shifting in Egypt. As this was taking place, Obama and Hillary Clinton remained frozen, unable to act as events unfolded in Egypt. Yet the success of terrorism in the Middle East and North Africa is likely to be determined much more by developments at al-Azhar that by mid-level terrorists being killed by drones in Yemen

3. Then there are the moral issues. Torture. Extraordinary renditions to states which torture. Secret CIA “black prisons”, hidden from everyone, even the International Committee of the Red Cross. And targeted executions, including “signature” strikes against unknown individuals who evidenced a pattern of activities indicating they were terrorists. Any male over 14 killed in a drone attack was automatically deemed to be a terrorist, which was one way of keeping civilian casualties down–at least for those living within the White House bubble.

It is interesting how Brennan makes his legal arguments purporting to justify targeted killings.  He paints a picture of the ideal case. The  real cases, however, where unknown boys 14 years of age or older merit having their guts spattered in the sand, are cases we don’t know about, and whose justifying legal memoranda we will never see, because they are secret, indeed if in individual cases they exist at all. A legal opinion to support an execution would have to be individual, taking the specific facts of the case into account, and public, and presented to a competent judicial authority.

4. There are also issues of individual moral responsibility, and guilt, incurred by killing people outside the civilizing strucures of law, including international law.

Senators voting on Brennan face this moral responsibility, and potentially moral guilt from sanctioning actions which, in strictly legal terms, might be characterized as presumptive war crimes or other international crimes.

Like the Argentine politicians and generals who argued they faced the cancer of terrorism, Brennan’s supporters may find plausible arguments for going along with international crimes.

Then there is the argument that we should let bygones be bygones. Just turn the page, and move on.  Of course that was not the position adopted by Justice Robert Jackson at Nuremberg.

If there is one book the Senators might want to read before voting on the Brennan nomination, it is “The Question of German Guilt”, by the famous German philosopher Karl Jaspers. Jaspers, in a series of lectures at the University of Heidelberg in 1948, articulated with elegant distinctions the kinds of criminal, political, moral and existential guilt Germans might feel or be accused of, as the blinders came off about what Hitler and the Nazis had done in the Third Reich. His analysis is exceedingly pertinent to “The Question of American Guilt”.

There are also a few films the Senators might want to watch before voting on the Brennan nomination. One of the best is “The Official Story”, winner of an Academy Award for Best Foreign Film in 1985, which addresses questions of individual moral responsibility in the Argentine context. “Judgment at Nuremberg”, with Spencer Tracy starring as Justice Jackson, would be another.

Given Brennan’s use of the “cancer” metaphor to describe terrorism’s advances, the Senators might benefit from watching “Z”, Costa-Gavras’ film about the right-wing coup in Greece. Then there is always “Missing”, a film starring Jack Lemon which in the context of Agusto Pinochet’s coup in Chile powerfully conveys the impact on individuals and families of those who abandon law in favor of pure force in their battle against the “cancer” of terrorism–as they see it.

5. We must bear witness to the truth and fight to uphold the rule of law. Just as the excesses of the “Palmer raids” in 1919, or the internment of Japanese citizens in World War II, came to be understood as great deviations from the rule of law, so too some day future historians will ask, “Did no one oppose these outrageous violations of fundamental rights, or seek to prevent them from being carried out?”

We and others, at least, must speak out–as loudly and effectively as we can–so that there is some evidence that people opposed these outrages upon the Constitution and the rule of law. The challenges we face are not as great as those faced by Sophie Scholl, who distributed pamphlets in Hitler”s Germany, for which she was executed, or others who faced the power of totalitarian states, yet nonetheless spoke out.

In seeking to answer the historians’ question, the vote of individual Senators on the Brennan nomination will be duly noted, and the judgment of history will be entered, and it will fall upon those who vote, or abstain or are absent, on the Brennan nomination in the Senate.

Did this or that Senator stand up for the rule of law, and vote against a confirmation that would send a clear signal to the world that America endorses holy warriors who have no regard for international law and human rights? Or not?

How did these Senators, on the dates of these votes, define the nature of American Democracy in 2013? That is the question historians will ask, and about which they will write.

The Trenchant Observer

Imagine: The Collapse of International Order, Syria, and Berlin in 1945

Wednesday, February 20th, 2013

There is nothing inevitable about international order.

The lessons of two world wars which informed the creation of the United Nations in 1945, and the maintenance of international peace and security for over 60 years, can be forgotten.

It is entirely conceivable that without decisive leadership from either Europe or the United States, the international order that has existed for many decades could start to wobble and even collapse.

And it is nearly impossible to conceive of such leadership emerging any time soon.

The rubble in Syria resembles the rubble in Berlin and the destruction in Germany in 1945, which occurred the last time the international order collapsed.

How bad could it get?

You could have wars like the one in Syria devastating countries in Africa, a nuclear attack on Los Angeles from North Korea, Iran with nuclear weapons and delivery systems within 5-10 years, and Israel surrounded by hostile Islamist states.

Things could fall apart.

Imagine a world without law, without international law governing the use of force which is generally observed and which states seek to  uphold when it is violated.

Imagine true anarchy unleashed upon the world.

Imagine a  world in which states use force without acknowledging they have acted, and without any obligation to publicly justify the legitimacy of their actions by reference to international law.

That is the direction in which we are heading.

The Trenchant Observer

White House thinking and Obama’s Reaction to Events in Egypt

Saturday, December 15th, 2012

The New York Times reports today on the thinking of officials behind the very bland reaction of Barack Obama and the United States to recent developments in Egypt, including Morsi’s seizure of dictatorial powers and the draft constitution which he pushed through the National Assembly–using dictatorial powers and by-passing the Constitutional Court– and submitted to the national referendum now being held on December 15 and December 22.

See David D. Kirkpatrick, “Obama Walks a Fine Line With Egyptian President,” New York Times, December 13, 2012 (December 15, 2012 print edition).

According to Kirkpatrick, following the clashes on December 6 between pro- and anti-Morsi demonstrators in front of the presidential palace, which left seven individuals dead, Obama in his call to Morsi did not reprimand him for what had happened.

Instead, a senior Obama administration official said, the American president sought to build on a growing rapport with his Egyptian counterpart, arguing to Mr. Morsi that it was in his own interest to offer his opposition compromises, in order to build trust in his government.

“These last two weeks have been concerning, of course, but we are still waiting to see,”said another senior administration official… “One thing we can say for Morsi is he was elected, so he has some legitimacy”(emphasis added).

As Egyptians vote Saturday on the draft constitution, the results may also render a verdict on …the Obama administration’s bet that it can build a workable partnership with a government guided by the Brotherhood — a group the United States shunned for decades as a threat to Western values and interests.

As for Mr. Morsi, administration officials and other outside analysts argue that so far his missteps appear to be matters of tactics, not ideology, with only an indirect connection to his Islamist politics….

What is more, the leading opposition alternatives appeared no less authoritarian…

But White House officials say that although the (constitutional) charter may be vague, it does not impose a theocracy. “The question will be, how does the next Parliament implement what is in the constitution, and what is their vision for Egypt?” said Tommy Vietor, a spokesman for the National Security Council.

Under current Egyptian law, the president is allowed to fill about a third of the seats in the upper house of Parliament, known as the Shura Council, and one idea is that he could appoint political opponents, evening out the balance. The chamber is the sole legislature until parliamentary elections, handling delicate matters like the election laws.

It is absolutely amazing to hear the kinds of arguments the president and his aides employ in discussing what is going on in places like Syria, or Egypt.  After a coup d’etat, the use of Nazi “brown-shirt” tactics to shut down the Constitutional Court, and the deaths of seven demonstrators, the thinking in the White House is that these events are “concerning”?

The aides who are quoted in Kirkpatrick’s article obviously have no personal understanding of the Middle East or what is going on in Egypt. It is fightening to consider that these individuals are influencing and reflecting White House thinking on such key policy decisions.

It was not too long ago, it will be recalled, when Obama’s policy toward Syria consisted of plans to ask the Russians for help.

See Matt Williams, “US condemns Syria massacre and looks for Russian help to oust Assad; Hillary Clinton harshly condemns Syrian president as Obama reportedly plans to urge Putin to back a transition of power,” The Guardian, May 27, 2012.

The thinking at the White House, on Egypt as on Syria, is at a very high level of abstraction, with ideas being thrown out without the staff work and winnowing process through which proposals which come up through the State Department normally have to pass. In effect, Obama by directly controlling the foreign policy of the U.S. on critical issues, such as Egypt and  the policy toward toward Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood, tends to cut out the inputs of the ambassadors, area experts, and higher officials in the State Department who should have a better idea of what is really going on. The Secretary of State, who should be centrally involved in these decisions, seems to have been relegated to a secondary role. 

Above all, thinking by Obama and his aides on foreign policy tends to consist of abstract ideas, which lack the granularity of ideas that are anchored in a deep appreciation of events on the ground, the context in which they occur, and their implications.

If the United States is to correct these defects and to shift its course from one of repeated foreign policy failures (Benghazi is but one example, emblematic of the rest), President Obama will need to select a new foreign policy team with clout.  He will need to find–and enlist–people of great stature, capability and relevant experience, who because of who they are and their own internal make-up have the ability to tell him directly when and why they disagree with him whenever they do.

The smartest man in the room needs other smart people in the room, who will speak forthrightly to him–and to whom he will listen.

The Trenchant Observer

Further reading:

The Trenchant Observer, “Morsi’s coup in Egypt: Obama’s silence, America’s shame,”
December 7, 2012

David Ignatius, “Our man in Cairo,” Washington Post, December 7, 2012 (5:01 p.m.)

The Trenchant Observer, “Is Obama losing Egypt?” December 6, 2012

How Islamist is Morsi’s draft constitution?

Saturday, December 15th, 2012

For the most incisive analysis of the impact of the sharia under Morsi’s draft constiution, being voted on in a referencdum in Egypt on December 15 and December 22, see

Nada Hussein Rashwan, “How Islamist is Egypt’s would-be constitution? Ahram Online takes a closer look at the position of Islamic Sharia law in Egypt’s draft constitution and its possible implications,” AhramOnline, December 14, 2012.

See also the following previous articles published here:

“Morsi’s draft constitution will remove top female judge in Egypt from Constitutional Court; the dubious future of female judges under the government of Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood, December 13, 2012

“Morsi the Trickster’s Latest Trick–Repeal of the Constitutional Decree of November 22,”
December 8, 2012

“Morsi’s Putsch: Battle lines are drawn—Details in draft constitution reveal Muslim Brotherhood’s strategy to seize all power in Egypt, as democrats defend the rule of law,” December 2, 2002

“Morsi’s Coup d’Etat and Rushed Draft Constiution for Egypt (with latest English translation),” December 1, 2012

“L’État, c’est moi”—Mohamed Morsi and Muslim Brotherhood launch coup d’état in Egypt
November 27, 2012

The Trenchant Observer

Morsi’s draft constitution will remove top female judge in Egypt from Constitutional Court; the dubious future of female judges under the government of Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood

Thursday, December 13th, 2012

It is important to understand Mohamed Morsi’s background in order to understand how the draft constitution now being submitted to a referendum beginning December 15 is likely to be applied if adopted.

See

Fiorello Provera, “Egypt’s Monster in the Making,” Project Syndicate: A World of Ideas, December 12, 2012. (Fiorello Provera is Vice-chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the European Parliament.)

Eric Trager, “Why Won’t Morsi Back Down? Read His Resume,” The New Republic, November 30, 2012.

Eric Trager, “Shame on Anyone Who Ever Thought Mohammad Morsi Was a Moderate,”The New Republic, November 26, 2012.

Sometimes it is useful to zero in on one aspect of a complicated subject to fully understand what is involved and what is at stake.

The role of women as judges in Egypt under the new constitution sharply illuminates what is going on under the surface of the draft constitution’s articles.

Traditionally, women were barred from becoming judges in Egypt. One of the reforms led by Hosni Mubarak, who for all his sins also defended the secular nature of the Egyptian state, was the appointment of the first woman judge to the Constitutional Court in 2003. Subsequently, he appointed 31 female judges to the family courts, which had just been established.

See

Peter Kenyon, “Female Judges In Egypt Battle Against Old Ideas,” April 3, 2010.

Human Rights Watch (Beirut), “Egypt: Open All Judicial Positions to Women; Top Judicial Body Should Ensure Women’s Full Participation in the Judiciary,” Human Rights Watch, February 23, 2010.

Kenyon points out that Hosni Mubarak appointed Egypt’s first female judge in 2003. In 2010, there were only 42 women judges out of some 9,000 judges, according to Kenyon. In February, 2010, “the State Council for Administrative Judges voted overwhelmingly against admitting female judges.” However, “Egypt’s prime minister ordered a review of the decision, and the state’s Constitutional Court said there is no constitutional or legal restriction to women serving as judges.”

In February, 2010, Human Rights Watch reported,

In 2003, the only female judge in any court in Egypt was Tahani al-Gibali. She was appointed to the High Constitutional Court by presidential decree. In its 2005 report, “Divorced from Justice,” Human Rights Watch found that some judges and officials of the Justice Ministry were outspoken in their opposition to the inclusion of women on the bench.

In 2007, the Supreme Judicial Council selected 31 women to serve as judges in family courts, though some Muslim conservatives in Egypt criticized the decision. Mohamed El-Omda, a member of parliament, was quoted in a 2007 article in Al-Ahram daily as saying, “Women cannot succeed as judges because the burdens of the task are enormous.”

The first woman judge in Egypt was Tahani al-Gibali (el-Guébali), who as noted above was appointed to the Constitutional Court in 2003 by presidential decree.

See Hadeel al-Shalchi (AP), “Appointment of Female Judges in Egypt Stirs Up Debate About A Woman’s Role; Views about the traditional role of women run deep in Egypt,” CNSnews.com, April 6, 2010.

“El-Gebali has long been a leader for women in the justice system. She was the first woman appointed to Egypt’s Lawyers Syndicate leadership in 1989. She and 24 other female lawyers applied for judges positions in 1998 — the first women to do so, and it took her five years to finally gain a post.”

Now, under Morsi’s draft constitution, the first female judge in Egypt and a leader of the movement to appoint women judges to the courts will be removed from the Constitutional Court as a result of Article 233, which provides:

Article 233
The first Supreme Constitutional Court, once this Constitution is applied, shall be formed of its current President and the 10 longest-serving judges among its members. The remaining members shall return to the posts they occupied before joining the court.

See The Trenchant Observer, “Morsi’s Putsch: Battle lines are drawn—Details in draft constitution reveal Muslim Brotherhood’s strategy to seize all power in Egypt, as democrats defend the rule of law,” December 2, 2012.

In an interview with Le Figaro (Paris), Justice Tahani El-Guébali (al Gibeli) described how her own job would end, and how Muslim Brotherhood thugs had made it impossible for the Constitutional Court to reach a decision on the constitutionality of the constitutent assembly elections. The intimidation included death threats she received on her mobile phone. She said,

Sunday, while the nineteen members of the High Court were to meet to discuss the legitimacy of the Constituent Assembly, which is accused of failing to represent the country, we were blocked by a barrage of bearded pro-Morsi supporters which prevented us from entering the building. Since then, hundreds of people are camping on site. Whenever I go there, I must turn back under a deluge of insults. I even received death threats on my mobile phone. Since its constitutional coup of November 22, which prohibits any legal proceedings against his decisions and against the Constituent Assembly, the new president has taken over full powers. He-reigns above the law. He imposes his dictatorship.

Q:  Morsi’s supporters affirm that the decree is “temporary” and that it aims to accelerate reforms …

A:  This is false. The Muslim Brotherhood is trying to kidnap the revolution. They seek to control all institutions, especially the Supreme Constitutional Court. The new Constitution, which they want to submit to a referendum on December 15, limits its powers and jurisdiction, and seeks to to remove eight of its members, including myself. Meanwhile, the Sunni institution al-Azhar is itself granted the authority of interpreting the sharia (Muslim law)…

–See Delphine Minou, “Égypte: « Morsi a accaparé les pleins pouvoirs » (Interview avec Tahani El-Guébali, Vice-presidente de la Haut Cour Constitutionelle d’Egypte), Le Figaro, 5 decembre 2012 (Mis à jour le 06/12/2012 à 11:19).

–See The Trenchant Observer, “Egypt’s coming showdown: Boycott of December 15 referendum, opposition demonstrations, and the reactions of the armed forces,” December 9, 2012.

Of particular significance is the opaque manner in which Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood are seeking to remove the top woman judge in the country from the Constitutional Court.  provisions such as Article 233, couched in seemingly neutral terms, amount to time bombs that could go off in the future under the government of Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood.

Who knows how many similar, opaque provisions are embedded in Morsi’s draft constitution? There is hardly time before the referendum begins on December 15 to explore these issues, much less for the public to make an informed decision on the basis of any such analysis.

In any event, there are not likely to be many women judges in Egypt under Morsi’s draft constitution and the application of its provisions under a Muslim Brotherhood government.

Nonetheless, sexual discrimination against women judges in Egypt under the draft constitution may have significant consequences in Washington and the United States. President Obama may have to sign human rights waivers for Egypt under the Foreign Assistance Act of 1961 in order for the military to receive its $1.5 billion dollars a year in U.S. military aid. Such waivers could become hot political issues in the U.S. Congress. If, in effect, they give Morsi and the Brotherhood a green light for sexual discrimination against women in the judiciary, they are likely to exact a very high political price from Obama and the Democrats, particularly if the government of Mohamed Morsi icreasingly acquires the characteristics of an authoritarian or even totalitarian Islamic state.

It is appalling that the United States, and above all Hillary Clinton, should be tacitly supporting this move (and Morsi), failing to speak out forcefully–and with consequences–for a return to the rule of law in Egypt, including full and equal rights for all female citizens in that country.

The fact that Hillary Clinton, in particular, is supporting the current U.S. policy of silence on al-Gibali’s removal, and more generally on the rule of law in Egypt, is likely to come back to haunt her should she decide to run for the presidency in 2016. As for President Obama, as noted earlier, his silence is America’s shame.

See The Trenchant Observer, “Morsi’s coup in Egypt: Obama’s silence, America’s shame,” December 7, 2012

The Trenchant Observer

نحن جميعا الديمقراطيين المصرية We are all Egyptian democrats!

Tuesday, December 11th, 2012

While the failure of President Barack Obama to speak out for the rule of law in Egypt is a matter of great national shame for America, there are others throughout the world, including the United States, who are following the struggle for the rule of law and a democratic future in Egypt very closely.

As we watch the struggle for democracy and the rule of law in Egypt enter a new and decisive stage, we are reminded of the words of President John F. Kennedy who, when visiting Berlin on June 26, 1963, some 22 months after the Berlin wall was erected, famously declared, “Ich bin ein Berliner.”

“I am a Berliner,” was a simple statement, instantly grasped by the 450,000 people attending his speech. He said,

Two thousand years ago the proudest boast was civis Romanus sum ["I am a Roman citizen"]. Today, in the world of freedom, the proudest boast is “Ich bin ein Berliner!”… All free men, wherever they may live, are citizens of Berlin, and, therefore, as a free man, I take pride in the words “Ich bin ein Berliner!”

Today, there are many Americans and other advocates of freedom and democracy throughout the world who support the democratic struggle in Egypt and who, following Kennedy’s example, want to say,

نحن جميعا الديمقراطيين المصرية

(“nahnu jame’an il demoqratee’een il musreya”)

“We are all Egyptian democrats!”

The people of Egypt, like the people of Berlin in 1963, are not alone.

The Trenchant Observer

Egypt at the Crossroads: Forced “Dialogue” Convoked by Military for Wednesday (December 12)

Tuesday, December 11th, 2012

Forced “Dialogue” Convoked by the Military on Wednesday, December 12; Divided Opposition v. Morsi’s Determination and Instransigence; Fateful Days for the Military, and for Egypt

On Monday, December 10, we wrote:

The future of Egypt may once again be in the hands of the armed forces and the police. How they respond may not necessarily depend on the orders they receive from the new leadership appointed by Morsi, but rather on the soldiers and policemen whose brothers and sisters are also in the street.

To that conclusion, we should now add:

Or it may be lost by continuing divisions and a lack of unity on the part of Morsi’s opponents.

The military has now convoked a dialogue on Wednesday between Morsi and the opposition. The meeting is to be held, significantly, at a military venue.

While the military may be tempted to think that its independence and perogatives will be safeguarded under the new constitution, they would do well to ponder how trustworthy the Muslim Brotherhood has proved to be in the past in dealing with secular forces, or any force that stands in their way. They might also consider the possibility of an emerging alliance between Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood of Egypt, Hamas, and the Islamic forces in Syria (including the Muslim Brotherhood in Syria) which will be vying for power after the al-Assad regime collapses. Their ability to uphold the peace treaty with Israel, under these circumstances, could be put to the severest of tests.

Although the military has great leverage in the present situation, so too does the democratic opposition. If they are able to adopt a united approach, and if they then fail to do the military’s bidding and continue their active opposition to a new constitution (whether rejected at the polls on December 15 or adopted through a vote shaped by dictatorial actions), the point may come where the military will have to choose sides. If they choose to back Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood, their claim to being the neutral arbiter and guarantor of Egypt’s democratic future will collapse.

There may be no Egyptian Ataturk waiting in the wings, or even an Egyptian Erdogan, but at least one thing has become crystal clear since November 22: the Muslim Brotherhood of Egypt is a powerful anti-democratic force.

It is not even clear at this point who is calling the shots for Morsi’s government, be it the Supreme Guide or some faction of the Muslim Brotherhood, or Morsi himself–”the enforcer” of internal discipline within the Brotherhood before he ran for the presidency.

Who, indeed, is in charge of the presidency of Egypt at this crucial hour?

Any dialogue on Wednesday, or later, will necessarily have to take these questions into account.

The Trenchant Observer

Morsi the Trickster’s Latest Trick–Repeal of the Constitutional Decree of November 22

Saturday, December 8th, 2012

Instead of acting like a statesman eager to regain the trust of the nation, the president gives more of the appearance of a small-minded merchant tenaciously trying to trick buyers at the bazaar.

Egypt’s President Mohamed Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood made a tremendous miscalculation immediately after Morsi played a constructive role in the establishment of a cease-fire between Hamas and Israel in Gaza.

Perhaps the success went to Morsi’s head. Perhaps they read Hillary Clinton’s praise as unconditional support.

Whatever happened, Morsi was emboldened to launch a coup d’etat on November 22, 2012, when he issued his “constitutional decree” giving himself full powers, eliminating judicial review of his actions, and “solving” serious problems which he and the Brotherhood faced in the transition to democracy.

The first problem he sought to “solve” was the fact that the constitutional court was on the verge of issuing a decision on the constitutionality of the elections to the constituent assembly. The assembly had appointed a drafting committee heavily stacked with Islamist members, and was finishing a draft constitution which effectively enshrined a stricter version of sharia than that established by the language found in Article 2 of the 1971 constitution (which was also repeated in the new draft).

To avoid the court reaching a decision, the November 22 “constitutional decree” eliminated judicial review of the government’s actions, and placed dictatorial powers in Morsi’s hands.

A second measure to avoid the Court’s reaching a decision was the rushed approval by the constitutent assembly of the draft constitution, in a marathon, all-night session boycotted by the opposition. Opposition members of the drafting committee had withdrawn some time before when their concerns were not listened to or addressed in the draft text. The draft constitution was issued, and as provided in the law a referendum was called for December 15 to approve or disapprove it.

But this was not enough.

To make sure that the constitutional court would not reach a decision–even physically–despite the fact that Morsi’s decree had already deprived it of the power of judicial review, the Muslim Brotherhood sent demonstrators who surrounded the Court building, intimidated the justices, and made it impossible for the Court to meet and reach a decision on the constitutionality of the elections of the constituent assembly. In doing so, the Brotherhood resorted to the “Brown Shirt” tactics used by Adolf Hitler’s thugs in his rise to power in Germany. Judges reported that they had received death threats on their telephones.

The draft constitution which was rushed to completion itself contains numerous provisions which violate basic principles of human rights and the separation of powers. It also has special provisions, such as the one that removes eight of the 19 members of the Court, sending them back to the jobs they held before taking their positions on the court.

The opposition did not accept Morsi’s coup d’etat. Demonstrations ensued, with those on Thursday, December 6 resulting in the deaths of seven people.

Throughout this process, Morsi proved utterly unyielding in his determination to by-pass the constitutional court and its potential decision, and to impose the draft constitution approved by the constituent assembly in the absence of its opposition members.

Now, the armed forces have spoken and expressed their intent to uphold the democratic principles of the revolution.

Morsi, in response, has come up with yet another “trick” concession, that is, a concession which appears to be a concession but which really isn’t because it does not affect his achieving the results he was driving for from the beginning of his coup d’etat.

He says he will revoke the constitutional decree of November 22. But the concession is meaningless, because he has already prevented the constitutional court from reaching a decision.   if the constituent assembly was elected by unconstitutional means, the constitution which they drafted is similarly tainted. But Morsi has kept the court from reaching a decision.

In fact, the draft constitution contains a provision which purports to repeal the November 22 decree, but then goes on–with great legal sophistry–to say that none of the decree’s effects shall be changed or subject to judicial review.

Indeed, it is not clear whether Morsi’s latest “concession” goes beyond what is already contained in this article.

The trick is that President Morsi is trying to appear as if he is granting a concession, when in fact he is clinging to the fruits of his illegal coup d’etat. Instead of acting like a statesman eager to regain the trust of the nation, the president gives more of the appearance of a small-minded merchant tenaciously trying to trick buyers at the bazaar.

With  his control of the electoral machinery, moreover, it is far from clear that any referendum on December 15 could be fairly held, with the votes fairly counted. Morsi has lost the trust of a very large portion of the Egyptian people.

Furthermore, there is obviously too little time for the provisions of the draft constitution to be publicly analyzed and debated. Consequently, holding the referendum under such circumstances, in terms of constitutional logic, defeats the very purpose of the vote.

Any vote on a draft constitution written under these illegitimate circumstances would be illegitimate, and meaningless.

What is required now is for Morsi to back things up to the status quo ante, back to where they were before the decree of November 22. That means that the constitutional court must be allowed to reach and issue its decision.

It also means that the Attorney General, dismissed by that decree, must be reinstated.

It means further that the rushed process of shoving a draft constitution down the throats of all opposition and independent groups in the country needs to be undone. Instead, an inclusive process must be established to draft a serious and modern constitution, based on the maximum degree of consensus that can be developed.

Morsi’s latest concession is nothing but a trick, designed to give him the fruits of his illegitimate actions–including the use of thugs and death threats to prevent the constitutional court from reaching a decision on the legitimacy of the constituent assembly–while appearing to compromise.

A further question is the extent to which Morsi has been following the advice of his government ministers and advisors, or rather the guidance of the supreme guide or a faction of the Muslim Brotherhood. This issue must also be addressed and resolved, as such actions are clearly inconsistent with the basic constitutional principles of any democracy. Moreover, the question of whether Morsi can really lead Egypt, after launching a coup d’etat, is on everyone’s mind. Ultimately, if his intransigence continues, this could become a question that the military may have to resolve.

If the opposition and Morsi cannot reach agreement on cancellation of the referendum and a restart of the drafting proces for a new constitution, they should be joined by members of the armed forces to establish a process that ensures that the constitution that is drafted is fully developed, protects fundamental rights, contains modern provisions on the separation of powers and the independence of the judiciary, and is adequate to the challege of guiding Egypt’s democracy in the 21st century.

The Trenchant Observer

Morsi’s coup in Egypt: Obama’s silence, America’s shame

Friday, December 7th, 2012

See David Ignatius, “Our man in Cairo,” Washington Post, December 7, 2012 (5:01 p.m.)

Mohamed Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood have executed a coup d’etat in Egypt, abrogating the rule of law and seeking to impose an Islamist constitution drafted in illegitimacy. The draft’s constitutionality is highly suspect in view of Morsi’s November 22 “constitutional decree” assuming dictatorial powers, and the Nazi “brown shirt” tactics used by Muslim Brotherhood thugs last Sunday to intimidate and threaten the judges of the Constitutional Court, thereby preventing them from meeting to reach a decision on the constitutionality of the constituent assembly and the drafting process for the draft constitution.

Morsi has been utterly unyielding. Instead of olive branches, he has offered only twigs to mollify the opposition, twigs which do not in any sense put the consolidation of the Islamist dictatorship of the Brotherhood and its religious allies into doubt.

Morsi was known as “the enforcer” of internal discipline within the Brotherhood before running for president. Now he seeks to play the role of “the enforcer” for all of Egypt.

Against this background, the White House and the State Department have issued the most cautious of statements, never mentioning human rights or the rule of law.

David Ignatius notes that, “Through this upheaval, the Obama administration has been oddly restrained. After the power grab, State Department spokesman Victoria Nuland said: ‘We call for calm and encourage all parties to work together and call for all Egyptians to resolve their differences over these important issues peacefully and through democratic dialogue.’ Not exactly a thundering denunciation.” (“Our Man in Cairo,” above.)

Yesterday Obama called Morsi, not to insist on a return to the rule of law or full guarantees in the constitution for internationally protected human rights, but to state to the Egyptian president that the violence of Thursday night which claimed at least seven lives was “unacceptable”. This was good as far as it went, since much of the violence appears to have been initiated by Brotherhood demonstrators. But it did not speak to the underlying issues.

At once Obama speaks like the king of the world in declaring street violence “unacceptable” to him, while at the same time failing to mention that the United States stands for the rule of law and wishes to see it restored in Egypt.

Obama’s silence on the issue that is tearing Egypt apart–whether the country will be governed by the rule of law and a constitution that provides safeguards for human rights, the separation of powers, and the principle of judicial review–is inexcusable.

If Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood and Salafist allies succeed in establishing an Islamic dictatorship in Egypt–which the last two weeks have clearly revealed to be their goal, the responsibility of Obama and the leaders of other democratic countries throughout the world will be overwhelming.

The president could threaten to withhold military aid of $1.5 billion per year.  He could threaten to block a $4.8 billion standby loan agreement between Egypt and the IMF.

Instead, in defense of the principles of democracy and the protection of human rights for which the United States has stood throughout its history, Obama has said nothing. Absolutely nothing. Radio silence. His silence shatters the eardrums, throughout the world.

Today, on December 7, 2012,  71 years after the attack on Pearl Harbor, Obama by his silence shames America and its devotion to democracy, and dishonors the memory of those who fought and died to defeat fascism in World War II (1941-1945).  America is a country which should never pull its punches in standing up for its deepest values, democracy and human rights.

It is a day of shame for the United States, as brave men and women in Egypt fight to defend their revolution and establish the democracy which it promised, while Obama, setting an example for the world, looks on passively, in deafening silence.

Somewhere, somehow, there must be leaders and nations who are willing to speak up to support the defenders of democracy in Egypt. In the United States, Congressmen and Senators should speak out loudly so that the Egyptian armed forces can hear the message that the $1.5 billion of military assistance the U.S. gives to Egypt each year, will not be given to the military of an Islamist dictatorship. Hearings on this aid should be immediately scheduled and held. If this military aid and their relationship with the United States is important to the Egyptian military, they must act to defend democracy and the rule of law. Otherwise they will lose their aid and their support from the United States. That should be the message.

In Europe, leaders of the European Union and its member states should similarly speak out for democracy and international human rights, and let it be known that they will not provide economic assistance to a dictatorship which has abrogated the rule of law.

If President Obama does not want to go down in history as the Democratic president who lost Egypt, who stood by silently when his leadership might have made a difference, he needs to speak out now, loudly and clearly, in defense of human rights and the rule of law in Egypt. Further, his words must have consequences if they are ignored.

Otherwise, he will be known in history as the President who lost Egypt to the Muslim Brotherhood and the Islamic dictatorship they and their Salafist allies seek to consolidate. He will be remembered as the President who did nothing when history swayed in the balance, for betraying those fighting for democracy and the rule of law in Egypt, and for losing the most decisive battle in the Middle East for at least the next generation.

Obama is losing Egypt.

Will he speak out and take forceful action? His past suggests the likelihood of continued passivity in the face of looming disaster.

But we would always like to be surprised, and to see him for once not “driving from behind”, from the back seat, but acting like the leader of the free world.

The Trenchant Observer

See also the following articles by The Trenchant Observer:

Is Obama losing Egypt?
December 6, 2012

Morsi’s Putsch: Battle lines are drawn—Details in draft constitution reveal Muslim Brotherhood’s strategy to seize all power in Egypt, as democrats defend the rule of law December 2, 2012

Morsi’s Coup d’Etat and Rushed Draft Constiution for Egypt (with latest English translation)
December 1, 2012

The Muslim Brotherhood’s Coup d’Etat in Egypt; William Butler Yeats and “The Second Coming”
November 28, 2012

“L’État, c’est moi”—Mohamed Morsi and Muslim Brotherhood launch coup d’état in Egypt
November 27, 2012

Is Obama losing Egypt?

Thursday, December 6th, 2012

Egyptian president Mohamed Morsi, a cunning tactician in an unflenching quest to establish a Muslim Brotherhood and Salafist dictatorship in Egypt, must have grasped the essential softness of American policy in the Middle East during his talks with Israel and the U.S. to reach a cease-fire agreement in Gaza. Immediately after the success of the cease-fire talks, for which he received great praise from the Hillary Clinton and the U.S. for the role he played, he seized the moment by launching his and the Muslim Brotherhood’s coup d’etat, issuing his infamous “constitutional decree” on November 22.

Washington needed Morsi to conclude the truce between Hamas and Israel when an invasion of Gaza  by Israeli forces seemed imminent.

The U.S. needed and needs Egypt’s support to keep the entire 1979 Camp David peace treaty from coming unraveled. This gives Morsi great leverage.

And, judging from Obama’s silence and the anodyne statements issuing from Washington, America is willing to look the other way as Morsi executes a coup d’etat on behalf of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt.

To be sure, it will take Morsi and the Brotherhood a little time to fully and formally consolidate their power and control over all the institutions of the Egyptian state. But the draft constitution when approved will give them the constitutional architecture necessary to achieve their goals.

In all of this, the President of the United States has been been quiet, maintaining a deafening silence in the face of Morsi’s coup d’etat.

The situation calls out for him to make a clear and outspoken demand for Morsi to restore the rule of law, or risk losing $1.5 billion per year in military assistance, and another $4.8 billion IMF standby loan agreement–not yet formally approved.  Neither should be extended to a new Egyptian dictator, ruling under an authoritarian constitution instead of a modern constitution–based on the separation of powers and the rule of law–to chart the course of a new democracy in Egypt.

Barack Obama is losing Egypt.

It is the character of the Egyptian state, and whether it is governed by the rule of law, that will ultimately provide Israel with the best guarantee that Egypt will be a trustworthy parrner for peace in the coming years and decades.

Moreover, Congress will not continue to fund at $1.5 billion per year the military of an Islamic dictatorship in Egypt.

By not speaking out now for the rule of law in Egypt, Obama is betting that “making nice” with Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood will best secure U.S. national interests.

He is likely to be sorely disappointed. In four years, the Democrats could well be vulnerable to the charge that Obama “lost” Egypt to an authoritarian and potentially totalitarian Islamic dictatorship, like that in Iran.

But this is merely from the electoral point of view. What is actually at stake is of much greater significance to the national interests of the United States and the West, and other countries in the region.

Is Obama losing Egypt?

What is Obama doing to prevent Egypt from becoming an Islamic dictatorship, like Iran?  That is the question of the hour.

The Trenchant Observer