Posts Tagged ‘Libia’

Hillary Clinton and “The Benghazi Triangle”—where careers and reputations vanish without a trace

Monday, December 17th, 2012

The Bermuda Triangle is a well-known area where ships have been known to vanish without a trace, and without any cogent explanation. It seems that since September 11, 2012, there is also some kind of “Benghazi Triangle”–where careers and reputations vanish without a trace.

After steadfastly maneuvering to avoid “The Benghazi Triangle”, it now appears that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton risks ultimately being caught up in its vortex.

Clinton certainly did not want to be involved with Benghazi, where one of her ambassadors and three other Americans were killed by heavily-armed militants on the evening of September 11, 2012.

After a grueling week, she “declined” to appear on the Sunday talk shows on September 16, leaving the White House to delegate that task to Susan Rice, the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations. Rice, once a leading candidate to become secretary of state in Barack Obama’s second term, was ultimately forced to withdraw herself from consideration for that post, in part due to the firestorms which erupted following her September 16 talk show appearances.

She had entered “The Benghazi Triangle” which, perhaps due to the fierce energies unleashed by the CIA “black operations” there, has been a zone where careers, ambitions, and reputations vanish without a trace.

Preceding Rice’s withdrawal from consideration for the secretary of state position, David Petraeus, the most celebrated general in recent times, had seen his career go up in smoke after entering into “The Benghazi Triangle”. Petraeus had had the temerity to insist on publishing the CIA version of what happened at Benghazi, on November 2, incurring the displeasure of other intelligence chiefs and government officials whose roles in the affair now came more fully into view. Days later, on November 6, 2012, the FBI called James Clapper, the head of the Directorate of National Intelligence (DNI), to inform him that Petraeus had had an affair with Paula Broadwell–which had ended four months earlier.

Clapper, without missing a beat, called Petraeus and urged him to resign.  Petraeus offered his resignation to Obama in a meeting on Thursday, November 8. The president thought about it overnight, and accepted it on Friday, November 9. 

Petraeus, in subsequent testimony before Congress on November 16, made clear that the CIA had not altered “the Benghazi talking points” it had originally prepared, which made specific reference to al-Qaeda affiliates’ participation in the Benghazi attacks on September 11.  This is an interesting point, since Michael Morrell, now Acting Director of the CIA, gave different accounts when meeting with Senators on November 27, 2012.

(An example of the misleading information being supplied to Congress and to the public is provided by the following excerpt from the Christian Sciene Monitor regarding meetings on November 27 of Susan Rice and CIA Acting Director Michael Morell with Republican Senators.)

…Republican senators said the meeting with Rice and Morell left them with more concerns than before. In a statement McCain, Graham and Ayotte said there was now more confusion about who had made changes in the talking points before they were given to Rice.

Morell told the senators during the meeting that the FBI had removed references to al Qaeda from the talking points “and did so to prevent compromising an ongoing criminal investigation” of the attack on the U.S. mission, the statement by McCain, Graham and Ayotte said.

“However, at approximately 4:00 this afternoon, CIA officials contacted us and indicated that Acting Director Morell misspoke in our earlier meeting. The CIA now says that it deleted the al-Qaeda references, not the FBI. They were unable to give a reason as to why,” the statement said (emphasis added).

–Tabassum Zakaria and Susan Cornwell (Reuters),”Controversy over Susan Rice’s Benghazi comments continues,” Christian Science Monitor, November 27, 2012.

See also The Trenchant Observer, “Lies, Spies and Politics: The Incredible Evolution of the Benghazi “Talking Points” Narrative–Part II,” November 27, 2012.

Morrell is reported to be a leading candidate to lead the CIA in Obama’s second term. Whether he can avoid “The Benghazi Triangle” remains to be seen. Certainly, if he is nominated, he will face some sharp questioning at his confirmation hearings.

Secretary of State Clinton avoided testifying about Benghazi in the first round of hearings, in November, due to her travel schedule which placed her out of the country. That schedule, apparently, was more important to her than testifying before Congress about what was arguably the worst foreign policy disaster during her term of office.

Now Clinton, the one key witness who could testify about what she–and President Obama–knew and when they knew it, has fallen and hit her head, suffering a concussion. Consequently, she will be unavailable for this week’s hearings, though she apparently will be working from home.

Everyone hopes she has a speedy recovery. As soon as she is well, the congressional hearings should resume, and she should be called again–for the third time–to provide critical information about what happened in and in relation to Benghazi, and what she and the president knew, and when they knew it.

If these questions are not promptly and satisfactorily answered, they may serve as an epitaph on her term as Secretary of State and all the diligence and hard work she has unquestionably brought to the job. Such an epitaph would undoubtedly affect judgments over the next four years regarding the viability of a Clinton candidacy for president in 2016.

In any event, her career and her reputation are at high risk, as she has ventured into “The Benghazi Triangle”–where careers and reputations vanish without a trace.

The Trenchant Observer

Possible motives for forcing Petraeus resignation

Monday, November 19th, 2012

Among the most significant articles to be published in recent days regarding Benghazi and the Petraeus resignation is a Wall Street Journal article posted late Thursday evening on their site.

See Adam Entous and Siobhan Gorman, “In Final Days, Petraeus Hurt by Libya Clash, Then Affair,” Wall Street Journal, November 14, 2012 (updated 10:32 p.m.).

In looking for a possible motive for forcing the ouster of one of the president’s key foreign policy advisers, without a fight, it is interesting to note that Petraeus had significant tensions with other intelligence officials in the weeks leading up to his resignation.

Entous and Gorman report,

WASHINGTON—In David Petraeus’s final days at the helm of the Central Intelligence Agency, his relations with chiefs of other U.S. agencies, including his boss, National Intelligence Director James Clapper, took a contentious turn.

At issue was whether the CIA should break its silence about its role in Benghazi, Libya, to counter criticism that increasingly was being leveled at the agency and Mr. Petraeus, said senior officials involved in the discussions.

Mr. Petraeus wanted his aides to push back hard and release their own timeline of the Sept. 11 attacks on the U.S. diplomatic compound in Benghazi and a nearby CIA safe house, seeking to set the record straight and paint the CIA’s role in a more favorable light. Mr. Clapper and agencies including the Pentagon objected, but Mr. Petraeus told his aides to proceed, said the senior officials.

Specific tensions over the talking points prepared for Susan Rice for her Sunday talk show appearances on September 16 became a matter of varying accounts by officials on background.

Criticism of Mr. Petraeus within the administration rose after the Benghazi attacks. Some senior administration officials at the time described Mr. Petraeus as disengaged in the attacks’ aftermath.

The CIA decided to keep secret its extensive security and intelligence-collection role in Benghazi, and Mr. Petraeus didn’t attend ceremonies for two CIA security contractors killed in the attacks.

Officials close to Mr. Petraeus said he was fully engaged, reviewing intelligence reports and taking part in meetings about the attacks.

Some administration officials felt they took the blame for using the CIA’s shifting accounts of what happened in Benghazi. Initially, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Susan Rice and other top policy makers used CIA talking points to make the case that the attacks were preceded by a spontaneous protest over an anti-Islam video created in the U.S.—an assessment the agency later abandoned. Critics said the attacks had the markings of an organized strike by al Qaeda-linked militants but the White House was initially more cautious about making such links.

The release on November 2 of the CIA timeline of events in Benghazi did not please James Clapper and other intelligence officials outside of the CIA.

As questions mounted, a Fox News report Oct. 26 alleged that the CIA delayed sending a security force to protect U.S. Ambassador Christopher Stevens and others who were under attack. Mr. Stevens and three other Americans died.

The CIA denied the report, then began pulling together its own timeline of events.

The Pentagon, the State Department and other agencies objected to Mr. Petraeus’s decision to mount a solo defense. “We conveyed our objections. Multiple agencies did,” a senior military official said.

Mr. Petraeus’s decision to release the CIA’s timeline to the press didn’t sit well with Mr. Clapper, who was unaware it would be made public, officials said. Other agencies saw Mr. Petraeus’s decision as a step aimed at presenting the CIA and Mr. Petraeus in the best light and forcing them to accept the brunt of the criticism.

James Clapper’s spokesman, Shawn Turner, stated Clapper did not talk to the White House before strongly suggesting to Petraeus that he resign, after receiving a call from the FBI on November 6 informing him of Petraeus’ affair with Paula Broadwell. The resignation climax swiftly followed:

Meanwhile, one week after the turf fight over the CIA’s release of its Benghazi timeline, the FBI told Mr. Clapper about Mr. Petraeus’s extramarital affair, said officials familiar with the timeline.

Mr. Turner said Mr. Clapper had no doubt when he spoke to Mr. Petraeus on Nov. 7 that “resigning was the honorable thing for Petraeus to do,” describing the discussion as “difficult” and “painful.” He didn’t consult with the White House first. Mr. Clapper informed the White House that day that Mr. Petraeus was considering resigning, these officials said. The next morning, Mr. Petraeus called Tom Donilon, Mr. Obama’s national security adviser, to request a meeting with the president, the officials said.

Mr. Donilon then briefed Mr. Obama. The president met Nov. 8 with Mr. Petraeus, who offered to resign. Mr. Obama told Mr. Petraeus he would think about it overnight, the officials said.

Officials said Mr. Obama didn’t try to talk Mr. Petraeus out of leaving. On Nov. 9, Mr. Obama called Mr. Petraeus and accepted the resignation.

As the authors observed earlier in the article,

By all accounts, the driving force behind Mr. Petraeus’s departure last Friday was the revelation about his extramarital affair with his biographer. But new details about Mr. Petraeus’s last days at the CIA show the extent to which the Benghazi attacks created a climate of interagency finger-pointing. That undercut the retired four-star general’s backing within the Obama administration as he struggled with the decision to resign.

Conclusions

1. David Petraeus pushed back against other intelligence officials who appeared to be blaming the CIA for failing to respond quickly to the initial attack.

2. One of the reasons Petraeus was initially coy was that he (perhaps with others) had decided to try to keep the CIA black operation in Benghazi a secret. This is why news reports from American sources took so long to report on what the black operation in Benghazi was doing.

It now appears that they were trying to collect heavy weapons which had become available to militants after the fall of Muammar Qaddafi, were monitoring some jihadist groups, and may have been supplying weapons to militant groups in Syria, through militant groups in Libya. This latter point is the most controversial aspect, whose details remain clouded in secrecy.

David Ignatius reports the following:

The CIA had a substantial base in Benghazi, with at least a half-dozen former military special forces assigned there as part of the “Global Response Staff.” These were the muscle-bound security guys known to flippant earlier generations of CIA case officers as “knuckle-draggers.” They were in Benghazi in such numbers in part because the CIA was supporting the State Department’s programto collect the shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles that had gone loose after the fall of Col. Moammar Gaddafi. Agency officers may also have been working with Libyan militias to help them become effective security forces.

–David Ignatius, “Charting a post-Petraeus era,” Washington Post, November 13, 2012.

The New York Times has added the following details:

The C.I.A.’s surveillance targets in Benghazi and eastern Libya include Ansar al-Sharia, a militia that some have blamed for the attack, as well as suspected members of Al Qaeda’s affiliate in North Africa, known as Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb.

American intelligence operatives also assisted State Department contractors and Libyan officials in tracking shoulder-fired missiles taken from the former arsenals of the former Libyan Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi’s forces; they aided in efforts to secure Libya’s chemical weapons stockpiles; and they helped train Libya’s new intelligence service, officials said.

–Eric Schmitt, Helene Cooper and Michael S. Schmidt, “Deadly Attack in Libya Was Major Blow to C.I.A. Efforts,” New York Times, September 23, 2012.

The more explosive question is whether Benghazi was a major CIA center in Africa, where heavy and other weapons were being purchased from militants in Libya, and then some of them were being shipped on to the rebels in Syria. If true, the facts remain highly classified, and may be among those which the governmnet asked news organizations to withhold in the early days after 9/11/12.

See

Michael Kelley, “There’s A Reason Why All Of The Reports About Benghazi Are So Confusing,” Business Insider (Military and Defense), November 3, 2012 (10:28 PM).

3. Petraeus upset Clapper and other intelligence officials when he released the CIA timeline of events in Benghazi on November 2, over their objections.

4. Clapper pushed Petraeus toward immediate resignation by strongly suggesting that he resign in one or both of their conversations on Tuesday night and Wednesday, November 6 and 7.

5. Petraeus called Tom Donilon on Wednesday, and arranged a meeting with the president on Thursday.

6. Obama did not immediately accept Petraeus’ resignation when then met on Thursday, November 8. Nor, according to the reports that have come out, did he strongly urge Petraeus not to resign, or offer assurances that he would fight to keep him in office if his affair with Broadwell became public.

7. Intelligence officials were concerned that Petraeus might publicly state positions at variance with their own on Benghazi, as in fact he did on November 2 with the release of the CIA timeline on events in Benghazi.

8. The announcement of a continuing inquiry into Petraeus by the CIA on Thursday, November 15, gave the appearance that the administration might be trying to influence his testimony to Congress on Friday, November 16.

9. Petraeus testified on November 16 that the original draft CIA talking points included the names of the al-Qaeda related organizations that were behind the attack, and the fact that there had been changes to eliminate those references before they were given to Susan Rice for Sunday talk show appearances on September 16.

10.  At this point it is difficult to know for sure whether the credibility crisis the Obama administration has created for itself in relation to Benghazi has been the result of incredible ineptness by Obama’s foreign policy team, “the gang who couldn’t shoot straight”, a deliberate downplaying of the known al Qaeda connections of those behind the attacks on the U.S. mission and CIA annex in Benghazi, for political purposes, or a combination of the two. At the moment, it looks like a combination of the two.

11.  The familiar Watergate dynamic continues to unfold:  stonewalling, drip-by-drip revelations, and rapidly increasing loss of trust and credibility.

12.  The president has a first-class crisis on his hands.  He needs to get out in front of it as quickly as he can if he is to govern effectively in his second term.  The arrogance and hubris of the president and his team may be the greatest obstacles he faces in terms of understanding clearly how perilous his situation currently is.  They represent formidable personal challenges to Obama, particularly coming as they do precisely at this moment of electoral triumph (at least in the White House and the Senate).

Obama needs Democrats to stop making this a partisan issue, and to break through his bubble and make it clear to him that drastic action is required.  As suggested earlier, the president needs to bring in someone with recognized experience, prestige, and credibility, someone like David Gergen, to manage his communications strategy with respect to Petraeus and Benghazi, and more.  His current strategy of ”I am right, and I was right” has failed.  

Spectacularly. 

The Trenchant Observer

New details on Benghazi attack on consulate, American response

Saturday, October 13th, 2012

New details about the attack on the American consulate and annex in Benghazi and the American response on the ground on the evening of September 11-12 have been made public.

See AP/The Huffington Post, “New Details From Libya Consulate Attack: State Department Abandons Claim Of Protest Outside Gates,” The Huffington Post, October 9, 2012 (Updated: October 10, 20, 2012 8:58 pm EDT).

For a chronology of events at the American consulate and “annex”  based on interviews with eyewitnesses, some of whom were present throughout the attack, see Thierry Portes, “Benghazi : le récit de l’assaut anti-américain,” Le Figaro, 16 septembre 2012.

Following requests by U.S. government officials to the press to withhold certain information, there has been little discussion in the American press of the CIA black operation in Benghazi and its relationship, if any, to he attack on the consulate and the “annex”.  Nonetheless, the location of the annex was revealed by apparent error at a House Intelligence Committee hearing on October 10, 2012. (Obama’s foreign policy has been characterized, among other things, by the sloppiness of its execution. This revelation was another example of “the gang who couldn’t shoot straight” bungling an intelligence matter.)

See “U.S. intelligence hurt after ‘CIA base’ in east Libya abandoned,” Al Arabiya News, October 13, 2012.

Dana Millbank (op-ed), “Letting us in on a secret,” Washington Post, October 10, 2012.

Analysis

The key questions here are the following:

1. Was the plan to replace highly-trained U.S. security personnel with local guards an intelligent policy decision, in a former war zone and an increasingly insecure area?

2. Were Ambassador Christopher Stevens and the U.S. personnel provided with adequate security in the light of the circumstances known before September 11? Were requests for additional U.S. and private contractor personnel denied in Washington for essentially bureaucratic reasons?

3. What was the precise relationship between the CIA “black operation” in Benghazi and the attack on the consulate? Did the government of Libya know at the highest levels about this operation? Has its unmasking contributed to government instability in Libya since September 11-12?

4. Did the Obama administration knowingly make misleading statements suggesting that the attack was related to the anti-Muslim film and a demonstration at the consulate against the film, when such an assertion had no factual basis and was contradicted by the known facts?

The critical issue is whether the Obama administration deliberately attempted to mislead the public with its early accounts of a spontaneous demonstration. 

If it did so, was it attempting to divert attention from the black operation in Benghazi, or to defend the narrative, for essentially political purposes, according to which Obama has been successful in fighting Al Quaeda and Islamic terrorists?

If the former is the case, we are dealing with ineptness.  If the latter is the case, the issue assumes much greater importance in terms of Obama’s character and that of his administration.

The Trenchant Observer

REPRISE: Syria and the Shame of the World

Saturday, November 19th, 2011

Originally published August 20, 2011

Bashar Al-Assad is pursuing the Libyan solution to civilian demonstrations–turn your tanks and your weapons on the demonstrators, and kill as many of them as necessary in order to restore “order” and remain in power.

The world, oddly, stands idly by.

It was a really slow burn, for the world even to notice. NATO’s hands were full with Libya, much fuller than they would have been had the United States led the alliance, instead of “driving from the backseat”. As President Obama might have learned had he looked into it, cars driven from the back seat don’t have the best of accident records.

Plus, the political acquiescence of Russia and China in allowing a United Nations Security Council Resolution to be adopted similar to the one which authorized the use of all necessary measures to protect the civilian population of Libya, was out of the question given Russian objections to the scale and duration of NATO military operations in Libya.

Then there was the delicate balance of Israeli-Arab relations, and Western-Iranian relations as a backdrop. Everyone was afraid–afraid to upset the current dynamically unstable “equilibrium” in the Middle East, particularly in Lebanon but also in the delicate interplay of forces among Israel, the Palestinian Authority, and the entrenched position of Hamas in Gaza. Lebanon alone, with the STL indictments of Hezbollah operatives allegedly responsible for the assassination of Rafiq Hariri in 2005, was a powder keg waiting to go off.

So all factors militated toward outside powers–at least in the West–taking a “look the other way” approach to the atrocities Al-Assad was committing against his people.

Except one curious thing happened. The Syrian people did not desist, even in the face the massive use of force against the people by the Syrian regime.

Now, inaction is beginning to look riskier than at least looking at what is taking place inside Syria.

Russia apparently is blocking the adoption of any U.N. Security Council resolution with enough teeth in it to possibly influence the actions of the murderous regime in Damascus.

Why are the Russians so comfortable with barbarism? That is the driving question that must be asked.

Is it the memory of their own tanks rolling into Prague, 43 years ago on this date, on August 20, 1968, to put down an even milder form of civil disobedience? Is it the authoritarian state that Russia has once again become, despite the heroic efforts of Boris Yeltsin to break the grip of communism and the state-controlled economy? His administrative skills and execution of policies weren’t that great, perhaps, but he was a real democrat, and he launched an incredible, peaceful, democratic social revolution which is still ongoing. At least we can say that.

So, is it the new authoritarian state in Russia that blocks the world from acting to protect the civilian population of Syria?

Coudn’t the Security Council at least, acting under Chaptain VII of the U.N. Charter, grant the International Criminal Court the authority to investigate and punish the war crimes and crimes against humanity that Bashar Al-Assad and his regime have committed and are committing, every day, right before our eyes?

How long can the populations of the West passively regard such brutality without themselves in a sense becoming a part of that same brutality through their own acts of omission?

What will it take for Russia–and the world–to act?

The Trenchant Observer

oberver@www.trenchantobserver.com
www.twitter.com/trenchantobserv

See also earlier articles by The Trenchant Observer:

Repression in Syria, and the spread of universal ideals throughout the world, May 11, 2011

Update: Torture, The STL in Lebanon, and Obama’s “Way Forward” in Afghanistan, July 1, 2011

Ratko Mladic to join Radovan Karadic in The Hague; Moammar Qaddafi and Bashar al-Assad await similar fates, May 28, 2011

The Struggle for Democracy in Bolivia, Spain, Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Lebanon, Ivory Coast, and Iran, March 3, 2011

Ratko Mladic to join Radovan Karadic in The Hague; Moammar Qaddafi and Bashar al-Assad await similar fates

Saturday, May 28th, 2011

The capture and imminent extradition of Ratko Mladic, the butcher of Srebrenice, to The Hague where he will join his partner in genocide, crimes against humanity, and war crimes, Radovan Karadic, who is currently being tried, should give pause to Moammar Qaddafi and Bashir al-Assad, for a similar fate awaits them.

International justice administered through international tribunals, now including the International Criminal Court, is gaining momentum. Consequently, it is not likely to take as long as 15 years to bring Qaddafi and al-Assad to justice for the crimes they have been and are commtting against their people.

The world is changing, and those committing genocide, war crimes, and crimes against humanity should be increasingly concerned about their potential international criminal liabiity.

As demonstrated in the earlier cases of Augusto Pinochet of Chile and the generals in charge of Argentina during “the dirty war” of the 1970′s, justice may be slow at times, but it is always persistent.

The Trenchant Observer

www.twitter.com/trenchantobserv

Repression in Syria, and the spread of universal ideals throughout the world

Wednesday, May 11th, 2011

NATO and Libya

Fortunately, NATO has begun to act more like a powerful military alliance willing to use its power in Libya, and the insurgents have beaten back Qaddafi’s troops from the outskirts of Misurata. Continued forceful action by NATO will be necessary to carry out U.N. Security Council Resolution 1973, calling on the nations of the world to protect the civilian population of Libya “by all necessary measures”.

Syria

Grave crimes are being committed now in Syria, as the Bashar al-Assad regime demonstrates that, like Qaddafi’s regime, it is willing to slaughter its own people if necessary to retain its hold on power.

It is unlikely that the Security Council will authorize another military intervention to protect the civilian population of Syria against the grave and widespread human rights abuses the regime is now committing.

So, what can be done by the international community?

First, the U.N. Security Council can at least condemn the repression currently underway in Syria.

Second, the Security Council should also refer cases of potential commission of crimes against humanity and war crimes to the International Criminal Court for investigation and eventual prosecution. The focus should be on the individuals responsible for ordering and carrying out the atrocities that have been and are being committed.

Al-Assad himself should not be immune from any such investigation, and the facts should be allowed to speak for themselves. Whatever hopes may have been placed in Bashar al-Assad when he assumed power following the death of his father, Hafez al-Assad—himself responsible for the slaughter of 10-25,000 people at Hama in 1982—it is clear that these hopes have now become but futile illusions in view events on the ground in Syria.

No one should be fooled for an instant by talk of reforms while Assad’s tanks are attacking civilian neighborhoods.

Evidence should be gathered and kept safe for future use. The names of units, the names of individuals commanding those units, the dates and times and locations of the actions they are undertaking, and the names and descriptions of their victims should be, and will be, collected.

It may take 10 or even 20 years, but every member of the security forces of Syria should be made to understand that—unlike what has occurred in the past—their names will be recorded, investigations will be conducted by the International Criminal Court and by other national courts, and one day they will be brought to justice, whether in Syria or by prosecutors and courts in foreign countries. They should know that, within 5 or 10 years, they will not be able to travel freely outside of Syria because there will be international arrest warrants out for their capture, indictment, and prosecution.

Somewhere, sometime, justice will catch up with them.

The Dawn of a New Era in History?

We can now see that certain epochs in history have come to a close. The cold war ended in 1991 after the Berlin Wall came down in 1989 and Boris Yeltsin put down a counterrevolution by communist and military forces in Russia in 1991.

Its aftermath extended perhaps until September 11, 2001, when the terrorist attacks on the Twin Towers in New York and the Pentagon in Washington set off an intense battle against Al Qaida and those who harbored them, such as the Taliban in Afghanistan.

Now, with the death of Osama Bin Laden and the Arab Spring of 2011, it has become clear that the people of the Arab countries of the Middle East and North Africa want democratic freedoms, economic opportunity and a better life–just like their counterparts in the rest of the world.

The post anti-terrorist era has begun.

While terrorist threats will remain extremely serious and must be addressed, terrorism is not likely to define international politics in the coming years as it has largely done over the last decade.

New battle lines have been drawn.

And times have changed. The United States and the Western Powers were unable to intervene to protect the civilian populations of Hungary in 1956 and Czechoslovakia in 1968 against the onslaught of Soviet tanks, because the Soviet Union had very large armed forces that could threaten Western Europe, and nuclear weapons that raised the possibility of escalation to nuclear war.

No such large land armies and military forces that could threaten Europe exist in the countries of the Arab Middle East and North Africa today.

Today we can see clearly the dividing lines between nations, between the democracies and those countries that at least are moving in transitions toward democracy, on the one hand, and those countries such as Libya and Syria which employ terror against their own citizens to retain their hold on power, on the other.

See The Trenchant Observer, “The Struggle for Democracy in Bolivia, Spain, Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Lebanon, Ivory Coast, and Iran,”
March 3, 2011

What has changed is the spread throughout the human population of universal ideals of respect for the human person, observance of fundamental human rights by governments, and a demand for democratic government and accountability. There are new demands for an end to corruption in closed societies, in which new generations see their chances for advancement blocked by those who cling to power by terror and the use of force.

The advent and exponential growth in penetration of the Internet, satellite television, mobile phones, and the ever-quickening pace of technological change itself, particularly in regards to communications and connections among people, have spread ideas and ideals, deepened awareness of events in other parts of the world, accelerated demands for change, and made it increasingly hard to hide acts of barbarism behind walls of secrecy.

The new battle lines have been drawn. Now we can see in sharp relief that our greatest opponents are those who use state terror and mass crimes against their own populations to seek or stay in power.

And it is manifest that our truest allies are those governments, groups and individuals which respect the sanctity of the human person, and the fundamental human rights that enable individuals to live together freely and in harmony in democracies governed by the rule of law.

When faced with atrocities, there are no longer–if there ever were– any compelling reasons for looking the other way.

The Trenchant Observer

www.twitter.com/trenchantobserv

For recent articles on related subjects, see the list of posts in chronological order.

Negotiating with War Criminals? Obama’s Debacle in Libya — Update #7 (May 4)

Wednesday, May 4th, 2011

Moammar Qaddafi continues to commit war crimes, attacking a ship in Misurata delivering humanitarian supplies and evacuating wounded, while members of the Libya contact group travel to Rome to devise a political solution to the crisis in Libya. See

Adrian Blomfield, “Libya: aid ship cuts short mission in Misurata after coming under fire — A British-funded aid ship was forced to cut short its mission to evacuate civilians from Libya after Col Muammar Gaddafi’s forces shelled the port of Misurata shortly after it docked,” The Telegraph, May 4, 2011.

Rupert Wingfield-Hayes, “Libya: Aid ship comes under fire in Misrata — An international aid ship helping to evacuate people from the besieged Libyan port of Misrata has come under rocket attack from government forces,” BBC News, May 4, 2011.

Video: In Misrata Port, Ship Braves Shelling to Save Patients, Migrant Workers, May 4, 2011

In New York, Luis Moreno-Ocampo, the chief prosecutor at the International Criminal Court, has told the U.N. Security Council that there is evidence that crimes against humanity and war crimes have been and are being committed. He is requesting arrest warrants for three Libyan officialse. Joe Lauria reports,

UNITED NATIONS—The International Criminal Court’s chief prosecutor told the U.N. Security Council he is seeking arrest warrants against three members of Col. Moammar Gadhafi’s regime on suspicion of committing crimes against humanity in Libya.

“The evidence collected establishes reasonable grounds to believe that widespread and systematic attacks against the civilian population have been and continue to be committed in Libya, including murder and persecution as crimes against humanity,” prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo said Wednesday.

“There is also relevant information on the alleged commission of war crimes,” Mr. Moreno-Ocampo told the 15-member council in New York. The Security Council in February referred the situation in Libya to the ICC to investigate possible war-crimes charges.

–Joe Lauria, The Wall Street Journal, May 4, 2011

Meanwhile, as noted above, diplomats are traveling to Rome for a meeting of the international contact group on Thursday, where a wide range of items are reported to be on the agenda, including plans for financing for the rebel government in Benghazi, and the political future of Libya.

One problem appears to be that the U.S. and major powers, with the great success of eliminating Bin Laden, have had a hard time paying attention to what is occurring on the ground in Libya. Had they been doing so, there might also be an urgent meeting on Thursday of NATO generals in Brussels.

One is never so vulerable to error as immediately following a great success.

The bankruptcy of the present policy of managing a war campaign by consensus amoung politicians and diplomats, in diplomatic conferences where consesus is the goal, is manifest.

We can at least hope that in Rome full attention will be given not to the many sideshows that are on offer (e.g., Berlusconi’s idea of putting a time limit on the coalition’s military operation), but rather to the central issue:

Will the coalition give its military commanders clear instructions to throw all of their resources into an effort to win the battle against Qaddafi?

It is certainly time for boots on the ground, in the form of amphibious and other forces that can secure the port of Misurata so that humanitarian aid can be supplied to the population, and the wounded can be evacuated.

Or should the Rome contact group consider a cease-fire that leaves Qaddafi in command of his troops, with a view toward a political settlement–with a regime which is engaged in an ongoing campaign of committing crimes against humanity and war crimes against its people?

Stay tuned.

The Trenchant Observer

For previous articles on Libya, see the following:

If Misrata falls…: Obama’s debacle in Libya– Update #6 (May 2)
May 2, 2011

Fierce Artillery Attacks on Misurata: Obama’s Debacle in Libya — Update #5 (May 1)
May 1, 2011

NATO Impotent: Obama’s Debacle in Libya — Update #4 (April 28)
April 29, 2011

The Human Cost: Obama’s Debacle in Libya — Update #3 (April 26)
April 26, 2011

Obama’s Debacle in Libya — Update #2 (April 23)
April 23, 2011

Obama’s Debacle in Libya — Update #1 (April 22)
April 22, 2011

Obama’s Debacle in Libya
April 21, 2011

Libya — “All necessary measures”
March 29, 2011

Current military actions in Libya
March 26, 2011

“Analyst-in-Chief” muddies waters; “Commander-in-Chief” cannot be found
March 22, 2011

Shooting Straight About Military Operations in Libya
March 21, 2011

While Carthage Burns, Obama Dithers
March 14, 2011

Zawiyah–Qaddafi’s victory, but stories will be told
March 10th, 2011

Libya—America Abdicates Global Leadership in Struggle for Democracy
March 10th, 2011

Zawiyah 2011 = Srebrenice 2005
March 8th, 2011

Libya and “The Audacity to Act”
March 6, 2011

The Struggle for Democracy in Bolivia, Spain, Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Lebanon, Ivory Coast, and Iran
March 3, 2011

If Misurata Falls…: Obama’s Debacle in Libya– Update #6 (May 2)

Monday, May 2nd, 2011

For the latest developments in the fighting in Libya, see

Lin Noueihed (Reuters), “Fighting rages in Libya’s Western Mountains,” Reuters.com, May 2, 2011.

ABC News (Australia), “Gaddafi’s tanks hit rebel city as son is buried,” May 3, 2011.

See also

Borzou Daragahi, “Inside a city running on fear:
Six weeks in the Libyan capital, in a hotel under lock and key, give a journalist a taste of the daily oppression and suffering Kadafi’s regime inflicts on citizens,”Los Angeles Times, May 1, 2011..

If Misurata falls…

One might have written, “If Zawiyah falls…,” but then Zawiyah did fall. We still don’t know exactly what happened there.

One could make the argument that however regrettable the loss of innocent human life as the result of the bombing of Qaddafi’s son’s compound, which NATO reports was being used as a command and control center–and the deaths of three small children are indeed regrettable–one should not lose sight of the fact that Qaddafi’s forces are killing many more than three small, innocent children every day. Under his orders.

One could make the argument that the ongoing commission of war crimes and crimes against humanity in e.g., Misurata, where the civilian population has been subjected to tank and artillery attacks– and is probably under attack at this very moment–should be brought to a halt.

By the use of “all necessary measures”.

One could argue that amphibious and ground troops should be introduced immediately in Misurata in order to secure a humanitarian supply route through the port and the airport.

One could argue that the United States should re-engage in Libya with “the two most accurate close air support weapons systems, the A-10 and the AC-130“, to help defend the civilian population of towns currently under assault by Qadaffi’s military forces.

But why bother? Why should the Libya contact group meeting in Rome on Thursday do anything other than manage their political exposure, attend to inter-alliance arguments over what is and what is not appropriate action in Libya, when up to now they have been perfectly happy to proceed in disarray, with no vision of victory, and no sense that it even matters to prevail in Libya.

Punch the clock. Show that you are doing something. Explain to the world that you can’t complete the anti-mining operation to clear the port of Misurata because Qaddafi’s forces use small mines that are difficult to find.

Who is there to make the argument that in war speed, tactical advantage and momentum are qualities that can make a decisive difference if properly seized upon?

Who could make the argument that while the Russians and the Chinese are unhappy with the way the NATO campaign is going, their displeasure might be mitigated if it were brought to a rapid and successful conclusion?

The failure of incremental decision making by a broad political coaltion is there for all to see. What was and remains necessary has been for the politicians and diplomats to turn the conduct of NATO military operations over to a single commander who is tasked with simply finishing the job.

The longer the fighting in Libya drags out, the more difficult it will become for coalition partners to maintain essential domestic support.

Perhaps it is time for NATO and other coalition members to focus intently on Plan B, prolonged and inconclusive military operations from the air, with a substantial likelihood of failure, leaving Qaddafi entrenched in power. This outcome could even be the result of a negotiated solution.

Would it be possible under Plan B, assuming you don’t care about the thousands who will be hunted down and executed by Qaddafi, to somehow put Qaddafi “back in his box”? To prevent him from supporting or engaging directly in international terrorism?

Of course, coalition partners and the contact group might find “success” through knocking out Qaddafi when he is somewhere giving commands, and therefore operating as a command and control center. That would be legitimate.

In the meantime, what about the people in Misurata and the other towns and cities in Libya that are under assault?

What should be done to protect those civilians?

The Trenchant Observer

Twitter: www.twitter.com/trenchantobserv
E-mail: observer@trenchantobserver.com

Fierce Artillery Attacks on Misurata: Obama’s Debacle in Libya — Update #5 (May 1)

Sunday, May 1st, 2011

EYES ON THE BALL

While overshadowed by the news of Osama Bin Laden’s death–for which President Obama deserves great credit–the war on the ground in Libya proceeds with renewed intensity.

Qadaffi’s forces continued to attack Misurata with artillery, in perhaps the fiercest attacks to date. Juan Miguel Muñoz of El País reports:

Military attacks

The Army undertook an offensive against various cities throughout the length and breadth of Libya, with particular fury in Misrata, in a war that becomes more confused each day.

The attacks of the Army with artillery and Grad rockets against Misrata were more virulent than ever, according to neighbors quoted by various news agencies which reported intense bombardments of the port and the airport. Uniformed soldiers were also deployed in strength against the western town of Zintan, and also in Wazin, a small city near Tunisia, whose authorities closed the border crossing. They also tried to attack in Jalu, hundreds of kilometers south of Benghazi, where NATO destroyed 45 military vehicles. The rebel commanders are convinced that Qaddafi wants to seize control of the border between Libya and Egypt in order to isolate the insurgents.

–Juan Miguel Muñoz, “La muerte de un hijo de Gadafi desata las represalias del régimen: Partidarios de Gadafi asaltan embajadas.- La ONU se retira de Trípoli. -El Ejército bombardea el asediado puerto de Misrata,”El País, 1 de mayo de 2011.

See also

Lin Noueihed (Reuters), “Les kadhafistes poursuivent leurs attaques dans l’Ouest libyen,” Le Point, le 2 mai, 2011 (LePoint.fr).

The mightiest military alliance in the world, NATO, has not yet halted the attacks on Misurata.

If NATO can’t stop artillery attacks on Misurata and the shelling of its port, it is not likely that the Taliban in Afghanistan will be swayed by its awesome power.

If NATO can’t halt the attacks on Misurata, it is difficult to see it playing a useful role in the North Atlantic in the future.

Indeed, NATO’s impotence in Libya may well be a harbinger of the demise of the organization.

Republicans are not likely to fail to make the point that it was a failure of American leadership that produced this failure by NATO, and Obama’s debacle in Libya.

The Trenchant Observer

The Human Cost: Obama’s Debacle in Libya — Update #3 (April 26)

Tuesday, April 26th, 2011

While the international coaltion hesitates to take decisive action to remove Qaddafi from power, the human cost rises.

Qaddafi’s forces unleased artillery attacks on Misrata’s civilian population Tuesday, with devastating effect. The following dispatch gives you a sense of what these words mean, in human terms. See

Charles Livingston (Misrata) and Richard Boudreaux (Tripoli), “Rebel Gains Fail to End Siege of Libyan City–Opposition Triumph Is Followed by Shelling of Civilians in Misrata; NATO Strikes Gadhafi Compound, Escalating Campaign,” Wall Street Journal, April 26, 2011.

For a critique of Obama’s foreign-policy decision making style, which has led to the current debacle in Libya, see

Michael Gerson, “Obama’s serial indecision on the Middle East,”
Washington Post, April 26, 2011.

In an op-ed in the New York Times this morning, James M. Dubik draws attention to the very obvious need for U.S. leadership in the Libyan campaign, as follows:

In war, leadership is not exercised from the rear by those who seek to risk as little as possible. Washington must stop pretending that we’ve passed the leadership for the Libyan operation on to NATO. We did so in Bosnia, claiming Europe would take the lead, only to have the 1995 Srebrenica genocide jolt us back to reality. Like it or not, America’s leadership has been crucial to most of NATO’s successes. The same will be true in Libya (emphasis added).

–James M. Dubik, “Finish the Job,” New York Times, April 25, 2011 (op-ed).

You almost have to pinch yourself in the arm to realize that the coalition acting against Qaddafi is comprised of the strongest military alliance in the world, plus other countries from the region.

Could U.S. leadership make a difference in the results, and the time and lost lives required to achieve them?

We may never know.

What is certain, however, is that the Republicans will use Obama’s “leadership…from the rear by (one) who seek(s) to risk as little as possible” against him in the 2012 presidential campaign.

The Trenchant Observer