The Trenchant Observer

U.S Foreign Relations January 21, 2022

REPRISE: The fatal flaws in U.S. thinking about responses to Russian aggression against Ukraine–UPDATED January 20, 2022

Update January 20, 2022 Given the continued use of the terms insurgents and insurgency to describe Ukrainian forces fighting in the future against invading Russian…

Belarus, Biden Administration, collective self-defense, coverage of foreign events, Crimea, Europe, European Union, International Law, Joe Biden, NATO, public diplomacy, Russia, sanctions, self-defense, Soviet Union, State Department, State Department Legal Adviser, U.N. Charter, U.N. General Assembly, U.N. Security Council, U.S. Military, Ukraine, United Nations, use of force, Vladimir Putin

Vladimir Putin, like Adolf Hitler, challenges the world

Biden Administration, collective self-defense, International Law, Joe Biden, NATO, OSCE, Russia, sanctions, self-defense, State Department, State Department Legal Adviser, U.N. Charter, Ukraine, use of force, Vladimir Putin

Biden’s disastrous remarks; REPRISE from 2015: Putin resumes fighting near Mariupol

Biden Administration, Fascism, FBI, House of Representatives, Impeachment, Impunity, Joe Biden, Justice Department, Merrick Garland, Rule of Law, U.S. Congress, U.S. Constitution, U.S. news coverage

Some House Democrats should move to impeach Merrick Garland for allowing statutes of limitation to run out and for not indicting Trump

Biden Administration, Capitol Insurrection, Detrumpification, Donald Trump, elections, Fascism, House Democrats, House of Representatives, Impunity, January 6 Capitol Insurrection, Joe Biden, Justice Department, Merrick Garland, Neo-Nazis, propaganda, Rule of Law, Senate, television, U.S. Congress, U.S. Constitution, U.S. news coverage

Biden’s failed approach to defending American democracy

human rights, Justice Department, Rule of Law, U.S. news coverage, use of force

How was Malik Faisal Akram killed in the hostage-release operation in Texas? (Updated January 17, 2022)

U.S Foreign Relations

REPRISE AND UPDATE: Afghanistan faces famine, economic collapse as international community poses conditions for aid

collective self-defense, History, International Law, NATO, Russia, self-defense, U.N. Charter, U.S. Intervention, U.S. Military, Ukraine, United Nations, use of force, Vladimir Putin

REPRISE: An Imagined Alternative Future History of the Ukraine (originally published April 13, 2014)

Biden Administration, collective self-defense, cyber attacks, cyber-warfare, Department of State, Dictatorship, Dimming Vision of World Affairs, European Union, European Union, foreign news coverage, France, Germany, History, International Law, Joe Biden, NATO, nuclear war, OSCE, propaganda, Russia, sanctions, self-defense, State Department, State Department Legal Adviser, U.N. Charter, U.N. General Assembly, U.N. Security Council, U.S. Military, Ukraine, use of force, Vladimir Putin

Change Putin’s calculations: Put force back on the table, and begin active cyber-warfare measures to defend Ukraine

Biden Administration, coverage of foreign events, Department of State, Dimming Vision of World Affairs, Germany, International Law, Joe Biden, NATO, Nordstream II, OSCE, Poland, Russia, sanctions, State Department, State Department Legal Adviser, U.N. Charter, U.S. Military, Ukraine, use of force, Vladimir Putin January 13, 2022

OSCE President after Thursday meeting: “The risk of war in the region is now greater than at any other moment in the last 30 years.”

Cuesta and Gómez quote Zbigniev Rau, the new President of the OSCE (and Polish foreign minister), as saying after the OSCE meeting in Vienna on Thursday, January 13, “The risk of war is the region in now greater than at any other moment in the last 30 years.”
Developments appear to confirm previous analyses that Putin is merely going through the motions of attempted diplomacy to bolster his case that he tried everything and had no alternative other than to invade Ukraine.
It now appears that he is doubling down on his threat and plans to invade Ukraine, in what may be in his mind a giant game of “chicken” with Joe Biden and the U.S.

collective self-defense, coverage of foreign events, cyber attacks, cyber-warfare, European Union, France, International Law, Joe Biden, NATO, nuclear war, Russia, sanctions, self-defense, State Department, State Department Legal Adviser, U.N. Charter, U.N. General Assembly, U.N. Security Council, U.S. Military, Ukraine, United Kingdom, United Nations January 12, 2022

How would a Russia-Ukraine war end? Beyond military alliances: The original United Nations Charter scheme of collective security.

In 1945, under the original scheme of the United Nations Charter, a country did not have to be a member of a collective self-defense or…

Department of State, Dictatorship, Finland, foreign correspondents, foreign news coverage, International Law, NATO, OSCE, Russia, sanctions, State Department, Ukraine, use of force, Vladimir Putin January 12, 2022

Vladimir Putin’s hubris, and Dimitry Peskov’s flair for self-satire and parody; If Putin invades Ukraine, could that be his last rodeo?

What an irony it would be if Putin’s hubris led him to invade Ukraine, and the consequences of that action–as the Russian body bags came home, Russia was expelled from the SWIFT international payments system, suffered from severe sectorial sanctions, and Finland joined NATO–led to his removal from power.

If Putin invades Ukraine, it could be his last rodeo.

Barack Obama, Biden Administration, Crimea, cyber attacks, Department of State, Dictatorship, International Law, Joe Biden, nuclear war, Russia, sanctions, State Department, State Department Legal Adviser, U.N. Charter, U.S. Military, Ukraine, United Nations, use of force, Vladimir Putin January 11, 2022

Putin seeks legally binding commitments from NATO that would be void under international law, threatens aggression against Ukraine if NATO doesn’t quickly accept his demands

See, Anton Troianovski, “Putin’s Next Move on Ukraine Is a Mystery. Just the Way He Likes It; The contradictory, sometimes menacing messages from the Kremlin…

Biden Administration, coverage of foreign events, International Law, Joe Biden, NATO, propaganda, Russia, State Department, State Department Legal Adviser, U.N. Charter, U.N. General Assembly, U.N. Security Council, U.S. Congress, Ukraine, use of force, Vladimir Putin January 10, 2022

The fatal flaws in U.S. thinking about responses to Russian aggression against Ukraine–UPDATED January 14, 2022

As far back as December 19, David Ignatius reported on a telltale fatal flaw in U.S. thinking about how it and NATO would respond to a Russian invasion of Ukraine.

He reported that American military advisors and policy makers were discussing how to provide assistance to Ukrainian “insurgents” or a Ukrainian “insurgency”. Ignatius on January 6 and David E. Sanger and Eric Schmittt on January 8 report that policymakers are still using the same terminology.

In doing so they have framed the question in a way which naively fails to take international law into account, much less to use it actively to achieve American deterrence goals, while employing a conceptual framework that assumes Ukrainian defeat. They are talking in terms of providing military assistance to “insurgents” after Russia has taken over Ukraine.

The conceptual framework assumes defeat, while completely ignoring international law and the U.N. Charter.

Story also availabe on Medium / James Rowles
See https://jamesrowles.medium.com/

Department of State, House Democrats, International Law, nuclear war, Russia, sanctions, self-defense, State Department, State Department Legal Adviser, U.N. Charter, U.N. General Assembly, U.N. General Assembly, U.N. Security Council, U.S. Congress, United Nations, Vladimir Putin January 8, 2022

The fatal flaws in U.S. thinking about responses to Russian aggression against Ukraine

The site is hacked.
Story available on Medium / James Rowles
See,
https://jamesrowles.medium.com/

Armenia, authoritarian regimes, Belarus, Biden Administration, collective self-defense, coverage of foreign events, demonstrations, Dictatorship, foreign news coverage, human rights, International Law, Joe Biden, Kazakhstan, NATO, OSCE, Russia, State Department, State Department Legal Adviser, Tajikistan, U.N. Charter, U.N. General Assembly, U.N. General Assembly, U.N. Security Council, United Nations, use of force, Vladimir Putin January 7, 2022

Russian intervention in Kazakhstan II (January 7, 2022)

January 7, 2022 See, 1) AFP, “Russia’s ‘mini-Nato’ intervenes in Kazakhstan Clashes reported in Almaty as govt buildings cleared of protesters,” 24newshd.tv January 7, 2022(7:43…

authoritarian regimes, Biden Administration, Capitol Insurrection, Crimea, foreign news coverage, International Law, Joe Biden, Justice Department, Kazakhstan, Merrick Garland, Russia, Soviet Union, State Department Legal Adviser, U.N. Charter, U.S. Congress, Ukraine, use of force, Vladimir Putin January 6, 2022

International Law, Politics, and Security