As Russia, the U.S., the EU and Ukraine meet on April 17 in Geneva, it is useful to consider previous analysis and the latest commentary from Germany and the United States.
Essentially, Russia has already committed an “armed attack” against the eastern Ukraine by sending in forces and agents under its control who have conducted armed takeovers of government buildings in a number of cities, particularly in the Donetsk region. This is a flagrant violation of the prohibition against the threat or use of force contained in the bedrock principle of the U.N. Charter, expressed in Article 2 paragraph 4. It is no exaggeration to state that the entire postwar international military and security order rests on observance of this principle, and its vigorous defense whenever it is violated.
This is the second major Russian violation of the principle in the Ukraine, following the invasion of the Crimea and its annexation in March.
A third, ongoing violation of Article 2(4) of the U.N. Charter consists in massing 40,000 combat-rady troops on the border with Ukraine, threatening invasion if the Kremlin’s conditions are not met.
The West and the international community have failed to respond with really serious economic sanctions, and as we write seem prepared to accept the Russian invasion and annexation of the Crimea. Leaders who support the actions that have led to this state of affairs have not thought matters through.
There is still one sanction whose logical basis is absolutely clear, and which the U.S. and the EU should still impose now:
A total ban on financial transactions and doing business with any entity in the Crimea, or with any non-Crimean company or entity engaged in financial tranansactions or doing business with such Crimean companies or entities. This should be a permanent sanction, to be lifted only when the annexation has been undone and the situation returned to the status quo ante.
The sad truth is that the West is now led by a generation of leaders who have little memory of Nazi Germany’s and the Soviet Union’s depredations in the 20th century. They have succumbed to a deeply-rooted pacifism and readiness to accept appeasement in response to aggression.
On April 17, they will sit down with the aggressor to essentially beg the aggressor to halt its offensive activities in the eastern Ukraine, while there seems to be little evidence that they will demand a return of the Crimea to the Ukriane and a withdrawal of Russian forces to the level at which they were in the status quo ante, before the invasion.
These Western leaders are unaccustomed to dealing with diplomats and presidents like Lavrov and Putin who repeatedly and shamefacedly tell blatant lies, orchestrate propaganda campaigns full of lies aimed at inciting civil strife and rebellion in the Ukraine, and launch Russian aggression by “stealth” with “little green men”, who are heavily armed and are in fact either Russian soldiers or directed and controlled by Russian soldiers, or both.
They couldn’t believe the true evil and atrocities they saw in Syria, involving the commission of war crimes and crimes against humanity on a massive scale–with active Russian support, and were unable to formulate actions that would do anything to stop them. Russia learned from this experience.
There is no more reason to expect any progress in Geneva on April 17 than there was to expect any progress at the Geneva II conference on Syria last June, where all hopes proved to be illusory.
The pacifist leaders of the West who are prepared to accept the annexation of the Crimea and the takeover of regions of the Eastern Ukriane by Soviet military aggression, have already traveled well down the road to total appeasement of Putin and the Russian bear.
What the world will look like after that, nobody knows.
For background, see the following articles by The Trenchant Observer:
(1) Russia threatens further aggression against the Ukraine: The response of the West has been a bad joke; Putin must be stopped, April 8, 2014.
(2) The language of actions: Russia, the Ukraine, and the response of the West
April 10, 2014.
(3) Munich II: The meeting in Geneva between the U.S., the EU, the Ukraine and Russia, April 11, 2014.
(4) Kiev caves in to Russian military threats, offering far-reaching concessions in eastern Ukraine; Pacifism and appeasement grip Wasington and Europe; First signs of Russian military intervention appear, as troops on border are poised to strike, April 12, 2014.
(5) Ukraine: U.N. Security Council meeting, latest news reports, and opinion (with link to April 13 Security Council meeting webcast), April 13, 2014. Excerpts:
We should not be fooled by the faux outrage of Russia and its calling of an emergency meeting of the U.N. Security Council today, Sunday, April 13.
Everyone knows who the fox in the chicken coop is, and no one is fooled by the fox’s loud complaints that it is being attacked by the chickens.
While the statements made tonight in the Security Council were informative, they should not distract our attention from what is taking place on the ground, and the actions we need to take to effectively counter ongoing Russian aggression.
For these actions the United States should immediately impose broad and deep sanctions against Russia itself, not merely 38 targeted individuals and two companies (a Russian bank, and the seized gas company of the Crimea). As soon as they can reach agreement, the 28 states of the EU should adopt similar sanctions.
A good start would be an immediate ban on all financial transactions involving the Crimea or companies doing business in the Crimea, and all financial transactions or doing buiness with any companies that are engaged in such activities.
In the forthcoming meeting in Geneva on April 17 with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, the U.S., the EU, and the Ukraine should begin the discussions with an absolute demand for Russia to undo the annexation of the Crimea and to return the situation to the status quo ante existing prior to the Russian invasion.
Latest Commentary from Germany and the United States
(1) Stefan Kornelius (Kommentar), “Moskau als Choreograf der Krise: Putins Druck auf die Ukraine ist übermächtig,” Süddeutsche Zeitung, 16. April 2014.
Es gibt nur einen Weg, eine Katastrophe in der Ukraine abzuwenden: Russlands Präsident Putin muss die Übergriffe seiner Spezialeinheiten und Agenten stoppen und den militärischen Druck von der Grenze nehmen. Die Indizien für den subversiven Einfluss Moskaus sind erdrückend. Die Ukraine soll keine Chance haben.
(2) Florian Eder (Straßburg), “Schwerwiegendste Krise in Europa seit 1945; Moskau, Kiew, die EU und die USA verhandeln am Donnerstag in Genf über eine friedliche Lösung der Ukraine-Krise; Russland rüstet propagandistisch weiter auf; Die Atmosphäre ist frostig,” Die Welt 16. April 2014.
(3) Olexander Motsyk, “Ukraine deserves international support in stopping Russian aggression, Washington Post, April 16, 2014 (5:23 p.m.). Motsyk is Ukraineś Ambassador to the U.S.
(4) David Ignatius, “The cost of Putin’s adventurism in Ukraine, Washington Post, April 15, 2014.
Ignatius reports on the current thinking of U.S. Analyst in Chief, Professor Barack Obama.
(5) Daniel Henninger, “Cold War 2.0, the Videogame: Obama’s uninterest in Ukraine forgets history,” Wall Street Journal, April 16, 2014 (7:13 p.m. ET).
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