Russian invasion of Ukraine viewed as increasingly likely

In Europe, some commentators see a Russian invasion of the Ukraine by regular forces as increasingly likely.


Richard Herzinger (Korrespondent für Politik und Gesellschaft), “KOMMENTAR—UKRAINE-KRISE: Was Putin mit einem Einmarsch riskieren würde,” Die Welt,
10. August 2014.

“Es ist zu befürchten, dass die russische Armee die ukrainische Grenze überschreiten wird. Wie würde der Westen darauf reagieren? Noch ist Zeit, Putin deutlich zu machen, was auf dem Spiel steht.”

See also,

“Russian invasion of eastern Ukraine possibly imminent; Russia lays out “facts” to justify “humanitarian intervention”, masses combat-ready troops on Ukrainian border,” The Trenchant Observer, August 6, 2014.

On Sunday, August 10, negotiations were underway for a joint humanitarian mission that meets the Ukrainian government’s demands that it be under international control, unaccompanied by military forces, and access the Donbass region exclusively through Ukraine-controlled border posts.

Whether this is more than a Russian ploy, aimed at securing a “cease-fire” that would protect the “separatists” by freezing the conflict in place, or serve as a diversion prior to an overt invasion, remains to be seen.


(1) Pilar Bonet, “Rusia participará en una misión humanitaria internacional en Ucrania; El ministro de Asuntos Exteriores ruso, Serguéi Lavrov, dice que negocia con el Gobierno de Kiev, la ONU y la Cruz Roja,” El Pais, 10 de Agosto, 2014 (21:06 CEST).

(2) “Kämpfe in der Ostukraine; Kiew lehnt Feuerpause ab – Separatisten sollen weiße Flaggen hissen,” Suddeutsche Zeitung, 10. August 2014 (16:07 Uhr).

“Der Kampf um Lugansk und Donezk geht weiter: Die Ukraine lehnt eine Feuerpause ab, sie fordert die Kapitulation der Rebellen. Der Westen fürchtet, Russland könne eine Waffenruhe zum Einmarsch nutzen – getarnt als humanitäre Mission.”

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James Rowles
"The Trenchant Observer" is edited and published by James Rowles (aka "The Observer"), an author and international lawyer who has taught International Law, Human Rights, and Comparative Law at major U.S. universities, including Harvard, Brandeis, the University of Pittsburgh, and the University of Kansas. Dr. Rowles is a former staff attorney at the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR) of the Organization of American States OAS), in Wasington, D.C., , where he was in charge of Brazil, Haiti, Mexico and the United States, and also worked on complaints from and reports on other countries including Argentina, Chile, Uruguay, El Salvador, Nicaragua, and Guatemala. As an international development expert, he has worked on Rule of Law, Human Rights, and Judicial Reform in a number of countries in Latin America, the Caribbean, Africa, the Middle East, South Asia, and the Russian Federation. In the private sector, Dr. Rowles has worked as an international attorney for a leading national law firm and major global companies, on joint ventures and other matters in a number of countries in Europe (including Russia and the Ukraine), throughout Latin America and the Caribbean, and in Australia, Indonesia, Vietnam, China and Japan. The Trenchant Observer blog provides an unfiltered international perspective for news and opinion on current events, in their historical context, drawing on a daily review of leading German, French, Spanish and English newspapers as well as the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, the Washington Post, and other American newspapers, and on sources in other countries relevant to issues being analyzed. Dr. Rowles speaks fluent English, French, German, Portuguese and Spanish, and also knows other languages. He holds an S.J.D. or Doctor of Juridical Science in International Law from Harvard University, and a Doctor of Law (J.D.) and a Master of the Science of Law (J.S.M.=LL.M.), from Stanford University. As an undergraduate, he received a Bachelor of Arts degree, also from Stanford, where he graduated “With Great Distinction” (summa cum laude) and received the James Birdsall Weter Prize for the best Senior Honors Thesis in History. In addition to having taught as a Lecturer on Law at Harvard Law School, Dr. Rowles has been a Visiting Scholar at Harvard University's Center for International Affairs (CFIA). His fellowships include a Stanford Postdoctoral Fellowship in Law and Development, the Rómulo Gallegos Fellowship in International Human Rights awarded by the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights, and a Harvard MacArthur Fellowship in International Peace and Security. Beyond his articles in The Trenchant Observer, he is the author of two books and numerous scholarly articles on subjects of international and comparative law. Currently he is working on a manuscript drawing on some the best articles that have appeared in the blog.