Der Spiegel reports renewed fighting around the Donetsk airport and, much more ominously, that the leader of the “Donetsk People’s Republic”, Aleksandr Zakharchenko, has threatened to seize Mariupol by force if Ukrainian forces do not withdraw, as renewed fighting in the direction of Mariupol erupted.
“Ostukraine: Heftige Gefechte um Flughafen von Donezk; Keine Entspannung in der Ostukraine: Separatisten und Armee kämpfen um den Flughafen von Donezk. Die Aufständischen drohen zudem mit einer gewaltsamen Einnahme der wichtigen Hafenstadt Mariupol,” Der Spiegel, 30. Oktober 2014 (21:10 Uhr).
Donezk ist in der Hand der Rebellen, die sich ungeachtet einer Anfang September vereinbarten Waffenruhe mit der Armee Kämpfe um den Flughafen liefern. Der Armeesprecher Andrij Lyssenko sagte am Donnerstag, in den vergangenen 24 Stunden seien in der Ostukraine ein Zivilist und sieben Soldaten getötet worden. Demnach wurden außerdem elf Soldaten verletzt. Es war der höchste Verlust für die ukrainische Armee an einem Tag seit mehr als zwei Wochen.
Lyssenko zufolge nahm der Beschuss auf die Armee zuletzt zu, insbesondere im Süden von Donezk nahe Mariupol. Die strategisch wichtige Hafenstadt ist die letzte von Kiew kontrollierte größere Stadt in der Region. Die Separatisten drohten damit, Mariupol einzunehmen. Wenn die Ukraine die Stadt nicht auf friedlichem Wege abtrete, “dann setzen wir Gewalt ein”, sagte Separatistenführer Alexander Sachartschenko russischen Agenturen zufolge.
A move on Mariupol would be consistent with Vladimir Putin’s modus operandi. With each setback, he has escalated the conflict in the Ukraine. The EU just reviewed and decided not to lift the “Stage 3” sanctions adopted on September 5 (implemented on September 12). The October 26 legislative election results in the Ukraine represented a stinging rebuke to Putin’s efforts to prevent that country from moving toward Europe. On October 24, Putin gave a speech in Sochi in which, within the delusional bubble he has created in Russia, he almost sounded reasonable. He argued in favor of international law and institutions, for example (if only we could overlook the facts that he has invaded the Ukraine twice and “annexed” the Crimea!).
This is how he operates, as a black belt judo master. Just as you think you see him moving from one direction, you get kicked in the head from another.
That other direction could be a move on Mariupol.
Originally piblished on October 3, 2014.
REPRISE: If Putin invades Mariupol and seizes a land corridor to the Crimea, what will NATO, the U.S. and the EU do?
Russia’s continuing aggression in the Ukraine, and continuing appeasement in the West
The ceasefire in the Ukraine established by the Minsk Protocol is being violated on a grand scale. Russian troops remain in the Ukraine, as supplies of weapons and other military assistance to Moscow’s “separatists” presumably continue.
Russian troops illegally occupy the Crimea, which Russia has purportedly “annexed” following military invasion and conquest.
There appear to be no strategies or plans in the West to make Putin disgorge the Crimea, which with full compliance with the Minsk Protocol establishing a ceasefire in the Donbas and a plan to achieve peace, might open the path for Russia to turn away from its current policies of military aggression and to cease its open defiance of the U.N. Charter’s prohibition of the use of force.
Given Russian defiance of the international law norms governing the use of force, upon which the entire structure of the United Nations is based, Putin may in the absence of a strong countervailing force cede to the powerful logic of war that would unite the Crimea with Russia proper, by conquering Mariupol and other territory between the Donbass and the Black Sea fleet based at Sevastopol.
The question of the hour is: Where is that countervailing force?
Europe is focused on the approval by he European Parliament of the cabinet or team proposed by the new EU Commission president, Jean-Claude Junker. Several of his nominees do not seem acceptable to the parliament’s elected members.
Some EU member states, including the U.K. and France, are also distracted by their military engagement as participants in the activities of the coalition fighting ISIS in Iraq and Syria.
The United States is highly distracted by its ongoing military operations against ISIS in Iraq and Syria, and the militarily grave situations that exist on the outskirts of Baghdad and in Kurdish regions in Syria close to the border with Turkey, whose parliament has just authorized military intervention in Syria.
Politicians in the U.S. are also focusing on the upcoming Congressional elections to be held on Tuesday, November 4, 2014. The Democrats, who currently control only the Senate while the Republicans control the House, are at serious risk of losing control of the Senate. If this were to happen, Barack Obama would be turned into a real “lame duck” president for the last two years of his term.
Attention is also focused on the frightening Ebola epidemic in West Africa, which has just registered its first American case in Dallas in the form of a passenger who arrived by air from Liberia. If 70% of new cases in West Africa are not confined to Ebola treatment centers by November (the current figure is 14%), the exploding number of cases is predicted to,number in the millions, with further risks of the disease being spread by travelers to other countries.
NATO is in transition, with the new Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, the former Prime Minister of Norway, having taken office only on October 1. Not only must the Alliance proceed with rapid implementation of the decisions taken at the Wales summit on September 4-5, but also consider the potential invocation of Article 5 of the NATO Treaty by Turkey in the event it is attacked by ISIS. Further deployments of NATO troops in the East are also needed, and the issue should be receiving high-priority attention.
At the same time, the demonstrations in Hong Kong over the issue of universal suffrage have the potential, if not carefully managed by parties on all sides, to spin out of control generating responses that could be fateful not only for Hong Kong but also for the evolution of Chinese society as a whole.
In this mix of headline-gripping developments, it is easy for the Western nations to assume that the Ukraine crisis is under control and can be left to simmer on the back burner for a while.
In terms of facts on the ground, however, this is not the case. The ceasefire is not being observed in the Donetsk region, particularly around the airport where serious fighting continues. Other steps in the Minsk peace plan are not being complied with fully, if at all. Prisoner exchanges have come to a halt.
Putin’s modus operandi is to strike suddenly and with great surprise. The distraction of the Western countries, and the fact that they are not even talking about the imposition of further sanctions, may create an opportunity for Putin to strike while the West’s guard is down.
For those leaders in the West who seem to be distracted, asleep, or still in the grip of pacifism and appeasement, the central question in their minds should be:
“Why shouldn’t Putin just go ahead and invade Mariupol and seize the corridor between the Crimea and the Donbas, guaranteeing a secure overland supply route to the Crimea during the coming winter?”
James Rupert, “As Winter Nears in Ukraine, Will Moscow Attempt Another Strategic Invasion? Continued Attacks Show Kremlin May Be Preparing Drive Toward Crimea, Analysts Say,” Atlantic Council, September 29, 2014.
James Rupert, “Can US Support for Ukraine Help Prevent a New Russian Invasion?
Canadian Analyst Says US Should Signal Moscow To Avoid Any Assault in South,” Atlantic Council, October 3, 2014.
Mychailo Wynnyckyj, “10 reasons that a full-scale invasion of Ukraine is possible before winter,” EuroMaidan Press, October 3, 2014.
What is to be done?
The first thing that is required is for the leaders of the West to put the Russian-Ukrainian war at the top of their list of priorities.
Among the steps they should take, in order to demonstrate to Putin and Russia that a powerful countervailing force exists, are the following:
1. Take the Minsk Protocol to the U.N. Security Council and put a resolution incorporating its terms to a vote.
2. The U.S. should take the lead on further sanctions, including banning Russian banks from using the SWIFT system for the transfer of international payments.
3. The U.S. and the EU and their allies should push for decisions annulling the decision to award the World Cup to Russia in 2018.
The World Cup should not be held in a country which has launched a war of aggression against a neighboring state, annexed part of its territory seized through military conquest, and violated the fundamental human rights of the populations subjected to its control (e.g., freedom of expression, right to participate in free elections, right to life, integrity of the person, and not to be arbitrarily detained, right to due process and a fair trial),
4. U.S. provision of “lethal” military weapons and assistance to the Ukraine should commence immediately.
The White House rationale for not doing so is rooted in policies of pacifism and appeasement (fear of antagonizing the aggressor), and should be reversed now in the light of events since February.
Appeasement has not worked with Putin, and it will not work with him either now or in the future.
5. The U.S. and the EU should begin an active diplomatic campaign for support of a strongly-worded U.N. General Assembly resolution on the Ukraine, condemning Russian aggression and reaffirming the U.N. Charter’s prohibition of the threat or use of force. They should focus their diplomatic efforts in particular on South Africa, Brazil and India, and be prepared to take serious measures against states which vote with Moscow, whether with a negative vote or by abstention. The vote will count. A vote to support Russia should carry a heavy price.
6. Plans and decisions for the stationing of large numbers of U.S. and other NATO troops in Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Poland and Romania should be made soon, and their implementation begun on an urgent basis.
The status quo cannot be accepted, if the crumbling international order and the U.N. Charter’s prohibition of the threat or use of force are to be preserved.
The Trenchant Observer