Democrats have already lost the 2020 elections

President Trump’s Job Approval Rating

Favorable 50%
Unfvavorable 47%

Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll, June 13, 2019

On five of the last seven days Trump’s job approval rating was 50% or higher. On June 12 it hit 51% with Disapproval at 47%.

The Democrats have been lulled to sleep by the other polls, which however are based on a flawed methodology. Rasmussen is the only daily tracking poll, and one of very few polls based on a model of “likely voters”. In the past, their polls have been shown to be highly accurate in predicting election results.

So, why are the Democrats losing the 2020 elections?

First, while they have persuaded that portion of the population which thinks, follows news, believes in facts and analyzes them, and who have not made a “Devil’s Bargain” with Trump for lower taxes and an increase in their personal wealth, they have failed after two years to make significant inroads with the broad masses of the population who support Trump.

They need to stop preaching to themselves, and focus on piercing the bubble of Trump supporters.

Thus, after the Mueller Report and the clear evidence in it of Trump’s obstruction of justice and abuse of power, and his cozy relationship with Vladimir Putin and Russia, 50% of “likely voters” approve of his job performance.

If what they have done for two years has not worked, one might think the Democrats might try something else. But no, they continue their dithering approach to starting an impeachment process with televised hearings, which conceivably could gain the public’s attention.

Following Nancy Pelosi’s firm determination to avoid impeachment proceedings that might have an impact on the 2020 elections, they come across as cowardly, afraid of Trump, and unwilling to risk their seats in a battle for American democracy and the rule of law.

Just think of how dilatory they have been in holding Attorney General William Barr and others in contempt of Congress. Pelosi is slow-walking everything, on the erroneous assumption that the House has all of the time in the world. It doesn’t. By some time in the fall, media attention will shift to the horse-race coverage of who is leading in the Democratic primaries.

Pelosi will have won with her delaying tactics. Democrats will have, in effect, bet the farm on her judgment.

But what if, as the poll results suggest, she is wrong?

Leading Democratic contender Joe Biden has strongly attacked President Trump, and rightfully so. But he forgets that things that may seem self-evident to Democrats over age 40 may resonate little, if at all, with younger voters.

To win them over, he must—at a minimum—explain to them why NATO has been and remains important, and why Trump’s trashing of World Trade Organization rules and international law with his tariffs has been both reckless and unlawful.

It is hard to see how the Democrats can halt Trump’s assault on the Constitution and the Rule of Law. About their only hope to stop Trump in 2020 is to start an impeachment investigation and hearings in the House, right away, without further delay.

If they use impeachment hearings effectively to educate the American public as to the facts of Trump’s “High Crimes and Misdemeanors”, they may just have a chance of overcoming Trump’s current momentum.

The choice for the Democrats is not between starting impeachment proceedings now and beating Trump in 2020, but rather between continuing their passivity, on the one hand, and seeing whether they can use impeachment proceedings now to educate the public in order to beat Trump (and other Republicans) in 2020.

Yet even if they initiate impeachment proceedings now, House Democrats will have to vigorously fight Trump in the courts in order to pierce his “executive privilege” and other defenses.

Vigorous legal action means now, without delay, e.g., right after he asserts executive privilege to block a witness. To date, Democratic House leaders have been lethargic in response to Trump’s actions.

Watch the Rasmussen daily job approval poll. It is the one scoreboard where Democrats, and everyone else, should have their attention firmly fixed.

The Trenchant Observer

About the Author

The Observer
"The Trenchant Observer" is edited and published by The Observer, an international lawyer who has taught International Law, Human Rights, and Comparative Law at major U.S. universities, including Harvard, Brandeis, the University of Pittsburgh, and the University of Kansas. He is a former staff attorney at the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights of the Organization of American States (IACHR), where he was in charge of Brazil, Haiti, Mexico and the United States, and also worked on complaints from and reports on other countries including Argentina, Chile, Uruguay, El Salvador, Nicaragua, and Guatemala. As an international development expert, he has worked on Rule of Law, Human Rights, and Judicial Reform in a number of countries in Latin America, the Caribbean, Africa, the Middle East, South Asia, and the Russian Federation. In the private sector, The Observer has worked as an international attorney for a leading national law firm and major global companies, on joint ventures and other matters in a number of countries in Europe (including Russia and the Ukraine), throughout Latin America and the Caribbean, and in Australia, Indonesia, Vietnam, China and Japan. The Trenchant Observer blog provides an unfiltered international perspective for news and opinion on current events, in their historical context, drawing on a daily review of leading German, French, Spanish and English newspapers as well as the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, the Washington Post, and other American newspapers, and on sources in other countries relevant to issues being analyzed. The Observer speaks fluent English, French, German, Portuguese and Spanish, and also knows other languages. He holds an S.J.D. or Doctor of Juridical Science in International Law from Harvard University, and a Doctor of Law (J.D.) and a Master of the Science of Law (J.S.M.), from Stanford University. As an undergraduate, he received a Bachelor of Arts degree, also from Stanford, where he graduated “With Great Distinction” (summa cum laude) and received the James Birdsall Weter Prize for the best Senior Honors Thesis in History. In addition to having taught as a Lecturer on Law at Harvard Law School, The Observer has been a Visiting Scholar at Harvard University's Center for International Affairs (CFIA). His fellowships include a Stanford Postdoctoral Fellowship in Law and Development, the Rómulo Gallegos Fellowship in International Human Rights awarded by the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights, and a Harvard MacArthur Fellowship in International Peace and Security. Beyond his articles in The Trenchant Observer, he is the author of two books and numerous scholarly articles on subjects of international and comparative law. Currently he is working on a manuscript drawing on the best articles that have appeared in the blog.