Fighting has flared between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. The territory of some 150,000 people is controlled by Armenia and populated by a majority of Armenians, but lies within the territory of Azerbaijan. A bloody war was fought in 1994, resulting in 25,000 to 30,000 deaths, and a ceasefire agreement from that year in principle remains in effect.
It is not clear how the present clashes began, with each side blaming the other. Turkey strongly supports Azerbaijan, both militarily and politically. Russia has a mutual defense treaty with Armenia and also has a base in that country. Yet Russia also sells arms and equipment to Azerbaijan as well as to Armenia. Turkey is a member of NATO, but also purchases military equipment from Russia, including the advanced S-400 missile defense system.
The risk of large-scale war between the two countries appears to be great.
See,
(1) Nicolas Ruisseau, “Affrontements dans le Haut-Karabakh : l’Arménie et l’Azerbaïdjan au seuil de la guerre; Le conflit gelé depuis près de trente ans dans cette région du Caucase, enclave séparatiste peuplée d’Arméniens mais revendiquée par l’Azerbaïdjan, a viré à l’escalade ce week-end. Avec, en coulisses, les deux arbitres : Ankara et Moscou,” Le Monde, le 28 sptembre 2020 (à 06h36, mis à jour à 15h50.
(2) Andrés Mourenza (Estambul), “Decenas de muertos en el segundo día de combates en el enclave del Alto Karabaj; El presidente azerí Aliyev anuncia una movilización parcial del país para hacer frente a las fuerzas armenias,” El País, 28 de septiembre 2020 (14:31 EDT).
(3) Andrew E. Kramer, “Fighting Between Armenia and Azerbaijan Risks Drawing in Bigger Powers; Escalation on both sides suggests that an extended conflict may ensue in Nagorno-Karabakh, increasing the possibility of involvement by countries like Russia and Turkey,” New York Times, September 28, 2020.(2:54 p.m. EDT).
(4) Anna-Sophie Schneider, “Türkei im Bergkarabach-Konflikt: Und wieder Erdogan; Die Kämpfe zwischen Aserbaidschan und Armenien eskalieren – die Türkei stellt sich deutlich wie nie hinter ihren “Bruderstaat”. Was hat Präsident Erdogan vor?” Der Spiegel, 28. September 2020 (23.36 Uhr).
The Trenchant Observer