U.S. warns allies of potential Russian invasion of Ukraine

November 24, 2021

Strategic Overview


Sylvie Kauffmann, “Obsédée par la Chine, la diplomatie américaine se trouve contrainte d’opérer un retour en Europe dont elle croyait pouvoir se passer;Joe Biden croyait avoir réglé la question européenne et stabilisé la relation avec la Russie pour pouvoir se concentrer sur la rivalité avec Pékin. Un calcul trop optimiste,” Le Monde, le 24 novembre 2021 (à 02h29, mis à jour à 12h04).

Original article


1) Joe Barnes (BRUSSELS), Nataliya Vasilyeva (MOSCOW), and
Nick Allen (WASHINGTON), “Prepare for Russian invasion of Ukraine, US warns European allies;Tens of thousands of troops massed on the border, Washington officials tell EU counterparts,” The Telegraph, November 11, 2021 (8:00pm).

“Russian forces, including elite units, are gathering near the Ukraine border, with some deployed covertly at night. The invasion assessments are believed to be based on US intelligence not yet shared with Europe, multiple sources told Bloomberg.”

2) “Ukraine schickt Tausende Soldaten an belarussische Grenze; Über 1000 Kilometer grenzt die Ukraine an Belarus. Aus Angst vor Aggressionen des Regimes in Minsk will Kiew den Grenzschutz drastisch verstärken – mit Militär, Polizei und einem Zaun,” Der Spiegel, 11. November 2021 (15.58 Uhr).

According to a late-breaking story in The Telegraph, U.S. officials have warned their top U.K. counterparts that Russia, which reportedly has some 90,000 troops massed not far from the Ukrainian border, may be planning an invasion of the Ukraine similar to its 2014 invasion of the Crimea.

Tensions are high on the Belarusian-Polish border, where Poland and the EU accuse Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko (Lukashenka in Belarusian) of orchestrating a flow of Afghan and other regugees toward Poland and Europe.

Lukashenko has threatened to cut off gas supplies to EU countries if they adopt further sanction against Belarus. At the same time, Ukraine and the U.S. have in these days updated their framework partnership agreement, which includes military and defense cooperation.

The situation is volatile, and merits close monitoring.

The Trenchant Observer

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James Rowles
"The Trenchant Observer" is edited and published by James Rowles (aka "The Observer"), an author and international lawyer who has taught International Law, Human Rights, and Comparative Law at major U.S. universities, including Harvard, Brandeis, the University of Pittsburgh, and the University of Kansas. Dr. Rowles is a former staff attorney at the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR) of the Organization of American States OAS), in Wasington, D.C., , where he was in charge of Brazil, Haiti, Mexico and the United States, and also worked on complaints from and reports on other countries including Argentina, Chile, Uruguay, El Salvador, Nicaragua, and Guatemala. As an international development expert, he has worked on Rule of Law, Human Rights, and Judicial Reform in a number of countries in Latin America, the Caribbean, Africa, the Middle East, South Asia, and the Russian Federation. In the private sector, Dr. Rowles has worked as an international attorney for a leading national law firm and major global companies, on joint ventures and other matters in a number of countries in Europe (including Russia and the Ukraine), throughout Latin America and the Caribbean, and in Australia, Indonesia, Vietnam, China and Japan. The Trenchant Observer blog provides an unfiltered international perspective for news and opinion on current events, in their historical context, drawing on a daily review of leading German, French, Spanish and English newspapers as well as the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, the Washington Post, and other American newspapers, and on sources in other countries relevant to issues being analyzed. Dr. Rowles speaks fluent English, French, German, Portuguese and Spanish, and also knows other languages. He holds an S.J.D. or Doctor of Juridical Science in International Law from Harvard University, and a Doctor of Law (J.D.) and a Master of the Science of Law (J.S.M.=LL.M.), from Stanford University. As an undergraduate, he received a Bachelor of Arts degree, also from Stanford, where he graduated “With Great Distinction” (summa cum laude) and received the James Birdsall Weter Prize for the best Senior Honors Thesis in History. In addition to having taught as a Lecturer on Law at Harvard Law School, Dr. Rowles has been a Visiting Scholar at Harvard University's Center for International Affairs (CFIA). His fellowships include a Stanford Postdoctoral Fellowship in Law and Development, the Rómulo Gallegos Fellowship in International Human Rights awarded by the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights, and a Harvard MacArthur Fellowship in International Peace and Security. Beyond his articles in The Trenchant Observer, he is the author of two books and numerous scholarly articles on subjects of international and comparative law. Currently he is working on a manuscript drawing on some the best articles that have appeared in the blog.