UPDATE
November 24, 2021
Strategic Overview
See,
Sylvie Kauffmann, “Obsédée par la Chine, la diplomatie américaine se trouve contrainte d’opérer un retour en Europe dont elle croyait pouvoir se passer;Joe Biden croyait avoir réglé la question européenne et stabilisé la relation avec la Russie pour pouvoir se concentrer sur la rivalité avec Pékin. Un calcul trop optimiste,” Le Monde, le 24 novembre 2021 (à 02h29, mis à jour à 12h04).
Original article
See
1) Joe Barnes (BRUSSELS), Nataliya Vasilyeva (MOSCOW), and
Nick Allen (WASHINGTON), “Prepare for Russian invasion of Ukraine, US warns European allies;Tens of thousands of troops massed on the border, Washington officials tell EU counterparts,” The Telegraph, November 11, 2021 (8:00pm).“Russian forces, including elite units, are gathering near the Ukraine border, with some deployed covertly at night. The invasion assessments are believed to be based on US intelligence not yet shared with Europe, multiple sources told Bloomberg.”
2) “Ukraine schickt Tausende Soldaten an belarussische Grenze; Über 1000 Kilometer grenzt die Ukraine an Belarus. Aus Angst vor Aggressionen des Regimes in Minsk will Kiew den Grenzschutz drastisch verstärken – mit Militär, Polizei und einem Zaun,” Der Spiegel, 11. November 2021 (15.58 Uhr).
According to a late-breaking story in The Telegraph, U.S. officials have warned their top U.K. counterparts that Russia, which reportedly has some 90,000 troops massed not far from the Ukrainian border, may be planning an invasion of the Ukraine similar to its 2014 invasion of the Crimea.
Tensions are high on the Belarusian-Polish border, where Poland and the EU accuse Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko (Lukashenka in Belarusian) of orchestrating a flow of Afghan and other regugees toward Poland and Europe.
Lukashenko has threatened to cut off gas supplies to EU countries if they adopt further sanction against Belarus. At the same time, Ukraine and the U.S. have in these days updated their framework partnership agreement, which includes military and defense cooperation.
The situation is volatile, and merits close monitoring.
The Trenchant Observer