Ukraine War, March 3, 2022 (II): Pacifist U.S. president slows military aid, blocks use of force; Economic sanctions will not stop Putin’s war crimes; What should be happening and is not happening to defend civilization?

See,

1) “Ukraine War, March 3, 2022 (I): Would the use of force in collective self-defense of Ukraine automatically lead to World War III?” The Trenchant Observer, March 3, 2022;

2) Marc Bassetts, “Macron, tras hablar con Putin, cree que “lo peor está por llegar”; El presidente francés, que oficializa su candidatura a la reelección, habla de nuevo por teléfono con el mandatario ruso y concluye que su objetivo es conquistar toda Ucrania, ElPaís, el 3 de marzo 2022 (13:58 EST, actualizado a las 14:16 EST);

3) “Krieg in der Ukraine – die aktuelle Lage: Russland bombardiert wichtige Städte – Raketen töten weitere Zivilisten; Am achten Kriegstag sind ukrainischen Angaben zufolge Dutzende Zivilisten getötet worden. Weitere Konzerne ziehen sich aus Russland zurück. Und: Ein Oligarch kritisiert Kremlchef Putin. Der Überblick,” Der Spiegel, den 3. Mārz 2022 (20.08 Uhr);

4) Tom Rees, “Russia’s Lukoil breaks ranks by telling Putin to end war in Ukraine; Russia’s second-largest oil company calls for ‘immediate cessation of the armed conflict,'” The Telegraph, March 3, 2022 (10:11pm);

5) Fareed Zakaria, “How to beat Putin, for real,” Washington Post, March 3, 2022 (6:23 p.m. EST).

Analysis

Current economic sanctions will not stop Putin’s war crimes

As Fareed Zakaria cogently points out, Biden and his foreign policy team are still withholding perhaps the most powerful potential sanction, an embargo on Russian oil and gas imports.

They are still prisoners of their rational-actor-model of the determinants of Russian behavior. They still think that by holding this sanction in reserve, they might deter Putin from committing even greater atrocities, or other actions such as invading a NATO country.

They have been proven wrong, time and again, and again. But the power of the rational-actor paradigm, what has been termed “the rational actor fallacy”, seems to have a death grip on their minds.

Given the disastrous record of the Biden foreign policy team, the “Afghanistan-withdrawal” foreign policy team, the only hope for a change in approach would be for Biden to form a high-level bi-partisan Executive Committee or Ex-Comm made up of high-level current and former officials, such as the “Nuclear Decisions. Ex-Comm” we have previously recommended.

Biden will needed to be prodded, very hard, by leading present and former officials, and Congressional leaders, to make this happen.

It is difficult to imagine how his present incompetent foreign policy team can lead the nation and the world in the civilizational struggle against Russia in which we are going to be engaged.

To defend civilization: What should be happening and what is not happening

1) Play the China card, NOW;

2) Berlin-airlift style shipment of weapons and military equipment to neighboring NATO counties & immediate transfer to Ukraine;

3) Supply of real-time operational intelligence to assist in targeting, etc.
(This may not be public);

4) Use of active cyber warfare measures to thwart Russian military advances and atrocities.
(This may not be public);

5) Transfer of fighter jets to Ukraine, NOW;

6) Adopt oil and gas sanctions blocking all transfers, NOW; and

7) Immediately resume and expand VOA/RFE/RL Russian-language shortwave and satellite transmissions.
Coordinate with other free-word broadcasters.

About the Author

James Rowles
"The Trenchant Observer" is edited and published by James Rowles (aka "The Observer"), an author and international lawyer who has taught International Law, Human Rights, and Comparative Law at major U.S. universities, including Harvard, Brandeis, the University of Pittsburgh, and the University of Kansas. Dr. Rowles is a former staff attorney at the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR) of the Organization of American States OAS), in Wasington, D.C., , where he was in charge of Brazil, Haiti, Mexico and the United States, and also worked on complaints from and reports on other countries including Argentina, Chile, Uruguay, El Salvador, Nicaragua, and Guatemala. As an international development expert, he has worked on Rule of Law, Human Rights, and Judicial Reform in a number of countries in Latin America, the Caribbean, Africa, the Middle East, South Asia, and the Russian Federation. In the private sector, Dr. Rowles has worked as an international attorney for a leading national law firm and major global companies, on joint ventures and other matters in a number of countries in Europe (including Russia and the Ukraine), throughout Latin America and the Caribbean, and in Australia, Indonesia, Vietnam, China and Japan. The Trenchant Observer blog provides an unfiltered international perspective for news and opinion on current events, in their historical context, drawing on a daily review of leading German, French, Spanish and English newspapers as well as the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, the Washington Post, and other American newspapers, and on sources in other countries relevant to issues being analyzed. Dr. Rowles speaks fluent English, French, German, Portuguese and Spanish, and also knows other languages. He holds an S.J.D. or Doctor of Juridical Science in International Law from Harvard University, and a Doctor of Law (J.D.) and a Master of the Science of Law (J.S.M.=LL.M.), from Stanford University. As an undergraduate, he received a Bachelor of Arts degree, also from Stanford, where he graduated “With Great Distinction” (summa cum laude) and received the James Birdsall Weter Prize for the best Senior Honors Thesis in History. In addition to having taught as a Lecturer on Law at Harvard Law School, Dr. Rowles has been a Visiting Scholar at Harvard University's Center for International Affairs (CFIA). His fellowships include a Stanford Postdoctoral Fellowship in Law and Development, the Rómulo Gallegos Fellowship in International Human Rights awarded by the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights, and a Harvard MacArthur Fellowship in International Peace and Security. Beyond his articles in The Trenchant Observer, he is the author of two books and numerous scholarly articles on subjects of international and comparative law. Currently he is working on a manuscript drawing on some the best articles that have appeared in the blog.

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