Ukraine War, April 27, 2022: Bing West says Ukraine needs $40 billion, not $4 billion in military aid; Nuclear war strategy; Getting careless on security

Developing. We are publishing this article as it is being written. Please check back for updates.

To see a list of previous articles, enter “Ukraine” in the Search Box on the upper right, on The Trenchant Observer web site, and you will see a list in chronological order.

Dispatches

1) Bing West, “Ukraine Needs Far More Heavy Weapons; NATO military aid is one-tenth of what Europe is paying Russia for energy, Wall Street Journal, April 27, 2022 (5:07 pm ET).

Mr. West, a former assistant secretary of defense and combat Marine, is author of a dozen books about Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan.

2) Seth Cropsey, “The U.S. Should Show It Can Win a Nuclear War
Washington might study Cold War-era practices that had a major effect on Soviet policy making, Wall Street Journal,
April 27, 2022 (1:08 pm ET);

3) Emmanuel Grynszpan, “War in Ukraine: Despite its onslaught, Russia still doesn’t fully hold the Donbas; Moscow hoped to capture the eastern region by May 9, the date of the military parade commemorating its victory over Nazi Germany. But Ukrainian resistance is fierce and the front lines have hardly moved,” Le Monde in English, April 27, 2022 (12h30);

Commentary

The urgent need for far more munitions in Ukraine

Bing West cites statistics to demonstrate how much greater the supply of munitions to Ukraine must be if it is to be effective. He concludes his op-ed as follows:

Having conceded control of the air, the odds of Ukraine taking back the cities held by the Russians are low, and approach zero without massive artillery. Ukraine doesn’t have the weapons or stockpiles of munitions for the slugfest that has begun. The U.S. and NATO must urgently provide $40 billion in military aid, not $4 billion.

Grynszpan describes in great deatial the battle on the front lines in the Dobas. He quotes a Ukrainian soldier, as follows,

The Russians are shelling Rubizhne with 152 mm mortars, all the shells are very large caliber,” said a Ukrainian soldier, on the condition of anonymity. “They have the advantage over us of having very large quantities of ammunition, while we are forced to fire five to ten times less because of supply difficulties.”

This quote, only a detail in a much larger story, underlines a key point West makes regarding the importance of greatly increasing the quantity of both weapons and ammunition being furnished to to the Ukrainians.

Nuclear war strategy

Cropsy addresses the taboo topic of nuclear deterrence strategy and preparing to fight, and win, a nuclear war. He makes important points, but his real contribution is to start the public discussion of what to many is the unthinkable.

His ultimate argument is that if you want to avoid a nuclear war, the best strategy is to prepare to win one, and to show your adversary that you are so prepared.

Getting careless on security

We’ve commented on the security lapses involved in Zelensky’s announcement on Saturday of the trip to Kviv of Anthony Blinken and Lloyd Austin on Sunday, and on the revelation after their meetings that they were traveling by train.

Now, MSNBC has just reported that U.N. Secretary General Antonio Guterres is in Kviv and is expected to travel to Bucha on Thursday. One can assume Volodymyr Zelensky will be with him.

Why announce these movements in advance?

It would be a catastrophe if we were to learn that Guterres and Zelensky had been killed by a massive barrage of Russian missiles during their visit to Bucha tomorrow.

This is no time for anyone to let their guard down on security issues, no matter how great the benefits of such announcements might appear to be from a public relations or political point of view.

The Trenchant Observer

***

See also,

Only force can stop Putin

“Ukraine War, April 5, 2022 (II): Force must be used to stop Putin,” The Trenchant Observer, April 5, 2022

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