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To see a list of previous articles, enter “Ukraine” in the Search Box on the upper right, on The Trenchant Observer web site, and you will see a list in chronological order.

Dispatches

1) Christian Esch, Susanne Koelbl und Fritz Schaap, “Putins Desaster – und was daraus folgt; Die Welt hat Putins Macht überschätzt: Seine Armee ist viel schwächer als gedacht, seine Geheimdienstler haben versagt, die Sanktionen beginnen zu wirken. Schwächt ihn das – oder macht es ihn gefährlicher?,” Der Spiegel (Titelgeschichte), den 6. Mai 2022 (12:10 Uhr);

2) Christian Esch, Susanne Koelbl and Fritz Schaap, “Vladimir Potemkin: Putin’s Disaster and What Could Happen Next; The world has overestimated Putin’s power. His army is much weaker than thought, his intelligence services have failed and sanctions are starting have an impact. Will all this weaken the Russian president or make him more dangerous? Der Spiegel English, , May 9, 2022 (18:42 Uhr);

3) Max Boot, “Putin is trapped in a quagmire and doesn’t know how to get out,” Washington Post, May 9, 2022 (1:17 p.m. EDT);

4) Colin Freeman, “Russia mysteriously cancels flypasts across country after Victory Day parade falls flat; Aircraft rehearsing for Monday’s event had been seen flying in Z shape used to identify Russian armoured vehicles in Ukraine,” The Telegraph, May 9, 2022 (11:45 a.m.);

5) Gerhard Hegmann, “‘Schlechtes Wetter’ bei blauem Himmel? Das Rätsel um Putins abgesagte Flugshow,,” Die Welt, den 9. Mai 2022 (15:28 Uhr);

6) Piotr Smolar (Washington, correspondant), “Ukraine : l’inavouable euphorie de Washington vis-à-vis de Moscou; Les Etats-Unis contestent toute idée de cobelligérance, mais se sont engagés sans réserve dans le soutien à Kiev, qu’il soit financier, militaire ou dans le domaine du renseignement. Ils se prennent à rêver d’un affaiblissement durable de Moscou,” Le Monde, le 9 mai 2022 (04h00, mis à jour à 22h18);

7) Piotr Smolar (Washington), “US caught up in the euphoria of a proxy war against Russia; While refusing to be labeled as cobelligerent, Washington is fully committed to supporting Kyiv, whether financially, militarily or with intelligence, Le Monde in English, May 9, 2022 (17h14);

Commentary

Potentially the most significant development of the day was the failure of the Russia mikitary to conduct its traditional flyover at Russia’s annual May 9 victory parade. The stated reason was “bad weather”. It may have been cloudy in Moscow, although Freeman reported that the skies were clear. The forecast may have been for cludy weather.

(T)he Kremlin cancelled the planned display in Moscow at the last minute because of “bad weather”. The explanation caused widespread bafflement, with conditions in Moscow (being) neither rainy nor particularly windy or overcast.

Similar displays in Yekaterinburg, Novosibirsk and Samara were also cancelled, prompting speculation that Russia was concerned about Ukrainian sabotage.

Even if the skies were cloudy, that doesn’t explain why flyovers p were canceled in other cities as well. Parades in Mariupol and the capitals of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republic in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine were also canceled, for security reasons.

Coupled with Putin’s failure to announce any dramatic measures or to escalate in his Victory Day speech, was the “bas weather” that caused the cancellations some kind of “political bas weather” among the military and other components of his power structure, or were they simply due to last-minute security concerns?

The Trenchant Observer

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See also,

Only force can stop Putin

“Ukraine War, April 5, 2022 (II): Force must be used to stop Putin,” The Trenchant Observer, April 5, 2022.