Ukraine War, June 9, 2022: Putin’s current calculations

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To see a list of previous articles, enter “Ukraine” in the Search Box on the upper right, on The Trenchant Observer web site, and you will see a list in chronological order.

Dispatches

1) Con Coughlin (Defense editor), “The West should stop tiptoeing around Putin; Modern-day Russia is a gangster state. It will respond to steely strength not diplomatic niceties,” The Telegraph, June 9, 2022 (6:00 am);

2) “Ukraine War, June 6, 2022: The West is headed toward defeat in Ukraine,” The Trenchant Observer, June 6, 2022;

3) Catherine Belton, “Putin thinks West will blink first in war of attrition, Russian elites say; The Kremlin is seeking to ramp up economic pressure to erode foreign support for Ukraine,” Washington Post, June 3, 2022 (3:00 a.m. ED);

4) Tatiana Stanovaya (Gastbeitrag), “Bei diesen fünf Annahmen über Putin liegt der Westen falsch; Die Frage, ob man Putin einen Ausweg aus dem Krieg eröffnen muss, ist nebensächlich: Er glaubt, dass er gewinnt. Der Westen muss die Situation anders betrachten, wenn er effektiver vorgehen will,” Der aspiegel, den 6. Juni 2022 (09.16 Uhr);

Tatiana Stanovaya ist Non-Resident Scholar bei der Carnegie Endowment for International Peace und Gründerin und Geschäftsführerin der politischen Analysefirma R.Politik. Sie ist in Moskau geboren und lebt seit 2010 in Frankreich.

Analysis

Putin’s calculations

For an imagined look inside Putin’s head in 2014, see,

1) “Inside Putin’s Brain—Part III: The Principle of “I make believe, you make believe”, the EU’s New Sanctions, and the Minsk Protocol — with Putin’s (imagined) annotations on full text (in English),” The Trenchant Observer, September 9, 2014;

2) “Inside Putin’s Brain: Musings on the Ukraine and what is going on inside his head — Part II,” The Trenchant Observer, September 3, 2014;

3) “Inside Putin’s Brain: Musings on the Ukraine and what is going on inside his head — Part I,” The Trenchant Observer, September 2, 2014.

Outline

1) disunity in the West
–freelancing by politicians from EU and NATO countries
–the push for negotiations for a ceasefire and “peace”, and a return to normality
–electoral threats to governments of allies and NATO members
–Trump and Trumpists in U.S.
–Putin allies in Estonia;
–Erdogan in Turkey,
–Orbán in Hungary
–weak allies
–Germany
–France
–Italy

2) Continued advances on the ground in Ukraine

3) Allied fatigue

4) Putin’s firm grip on power

5) The pressure of world turmoil on decision makers in the West
–global famine
–immigrant flows to European countries
-impact on domestic politics in EU and NATO countries

Tatiana Stanovaya analyzes five false assumptions which the West must correct id it is to deal effectively with Putin. Her analysis is powerful, and worth using Google Translate to render into English. The translate function on the Der Spiegel address bar does not seem to be working today.

he Trenchant Observer

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See also,

Only force can stop Putin

“Ukraine War, April 5, 2022 (II): Force must be used to stop Putin,” The Trenchant Observer, April 5, 2922 .

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