Developing. We are publishing this article as it is being written. Please check back for updates.
THE WAR TO SAVE THE U.N. CHARTER AND INTERNATIONAL LAW
To see a list of previous articles, enter “Ukraine” in the Search Box on the upper right, on The Trenchant Observer web site, and you will see a list in chronological order.
Dispatches
1) By Jagoda Marinic,”Germany’s Chancellor Promised to Deter Putin. Then He Did Nothing.” New York Yimes, June 14, 2022;
2) Michelle Nichols, “Biden touts grain silos on Ukraine border to help exports; Kyiv wants ports open:” Reuters, June 14, 2022 (8:38 p.m. EDT);
3) Oliver Holmes, “US announces plan to build silos on Ukraine border to export grain; Joe Biden working with European governments to avert global crisis and help lower food prices,” The Guardian, June 15, 2022 (13.28 BST);
4) Daniel Michaels and Nancy A. Youssef, “U.S., Allies Pledge New Help to Ukraine Against Russia Amid Growing Strains; NATO countries and 20 others commit more weapons to Kyiv as differences grow over how to balance fighting against diplomacy,” Wall Street Journal, June 15, 2022;
5) Steven Erlanger, “Ukraine, outgunned in the east, is turning up the pressure on Europe for help,” New York Times, June 13, 2022;
UPDATE
6) William Mauldin and Jared Malsin, “Turkey, U.N. Eye Sea Lane for Grain Through Ukraine’s Mines; Proposal would provide freighters a safe passage through the defensive mines in Black Sea ports,” Wall Street Journal, June 16, 2022 (By
June 16, 2022 7:39 am ET
Analysis
UPDATE
7) Patrick Wintour, “”France and Turkey propose rival plans to get grain out of Ukraine: Macron favours land routes to Romania from Odesa whereas Ankara wants to use shipping lanes through Black Sea, Tge Guardian, June 17, 2022 (17.43 BST);
ANALYSIS
Biden’s foreign policy team has come up with another brilliant idea which may not work, or at least not this year: temporary grain silos in Poland.
The plan is complicated.
Grain would have to be shipped by rail to the temporary grain silos in Poland. Because of the different gages of the rail lines, the grain would have to be loaded from Ukrainian train cars to Polish train cars, and then transported to European ports for sea shipment to foreign countries.
The problematic nature of this proposal underlines the gravity of the situation. If the problem of Ukraine’s blockaded ports is not solved, widespread famine in a number of countries is expected to result.
What’s the alternative?
Perhaps the White House should work more on Turkish proposals for mine-clearing operations and convoys under U.N. auspices with Russian agreement.
Russia would be hard-pressed in the U.N. Security Council not to oppose such a proposal.
Or maybe there is no solution, and widespread famine will ensue.
***
Michaels and Youssef report that in response to Ukraine’s urgent pleas for greatly increased shipments of heavy weapons and munitions the U.S. has pledged another billion dollars in military aid.
Somewhat condescendingly, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin had this to say:
“We remain focused on Ukraine’s needs,” said U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, who hosted a meeting in Brussels on Wednesday of roughly 50 countries contributing to Ukraine’s war effort. “We’ll stay focused on it for as long as it takes.”
He cautioned that for soldiers in battle receiving the supplies, “it’s never enough.”
What the Ukraine needs is not promises of future weapons deliveries, but long-range artillery pieces and ammunition, and other munitions, actually deployed on the front lines in the Donbas where the battle is raging.
Erlanger writes that Ukraine has asked for the following:
In an interview, a top adviser to Mr. Zelensky on Monday sharply ramped up his country’s urgent calls for more and faster delivery of more modern weapons and gear from NATO countries. Suffering heavy losses of soldiers and equipment in Donbas, Ukrainian forces are running out of ammunition for their Soviet-era artillery, and Ukrainian officials contend that Russian artillery in the east is out-firing their own, 10 to 1.
Mykhailo Podolyak, the Zelensky adviser, said Ukraine needs 300 mobile multiple rocket-launch systems, 1,000 howitzers, 500 tanks, 2,000 armored vehicles and 1,000 drones to achieve parity with Russia in the Donbas region where fighting is concentrated — numbers many times beyond anything that has been publicly discussed in the West. The United States has promised four of the mobile rocket launchers and Britain a few more; Washington has sent a little more than 100 howitzers, and other nations a few dozen more.
From the numbers above, it is clear that the U.S. and its NATO allies are not delivering the weapons to Ukraine that it needs to halt the Russian onslaught.
Nor, as far as is publicly known, has war production been mobilized in NATO countries to meet future weapons and other munitions requirements in a prolonged war.
The U.S. and NATO countries remain focused on their self-regarding assessments of how well they are doing, not on the requirements of the battlefield and developments on the ground.
Always, it is too little, too late.
Austin’s comment is misguided.
We are not talking about the subjective feelings of Ukrainian soldiers on the battlefield, but rather about the objective requirements of what it will take to defeat the Russians.
The Trenchant Observer
