Ukraine War, June 25, 2022: The military situation; Erdogan and Finnish and Swedish membership in NATO–U.S. must consider moving airbase from Turkey to Greece or Bulgaria

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To see a list of previous articles, enter “Ukraine” in the Search Box on the upper right, on The Trenchant Observer web site, and you will see a list in chronological order.


1) Liz Sly, “Russia will soon exhaust its combat capabilities, Western assessments predict; Small shifts in territorial control matter less than the overall balance of forces, which analysts say could shift back in favor of Ukraine in the coming months,” Washington Post, June 25, 2022 (12:32 p.m. EDT, published at 3:00 a.m. EDT);

2) Lawrence Freedman, “Paralysis in Moscow: why Putin persists with his strategy; The Russian president realises he must pick his fights carefully. Just as well, because the challenges keep coming, The New Statesman, June 23, 2022…;

3) “Erdogan pocht weiter auf „konkrete“ Schritte von Schweden und Finnland,” Die Welt, den 25. Juni 2022 (22:16 Uhr);


Turkey’s President Erdogan does not act like a loyal member of NATO, the most powerful military alliance in the world.

He is currently blocking Finnish and Swedish accession to NATO.

Geographical and strategic realities may foreclose trying to find a way to expel Turkey from the alliance.

That does not mean, however, that NATO members are powerless.

Turkey’s economy is in dire straits, and may need Western assistance.

NATO needs to stand up to Erdogan, particularly on tbe issue of Finland and Sweden becoming members of NATO.

The U.S. Incirlik Air Base is a huge airbase in Turkey.

If Turkey wants to arm wrestle with rhe U.S. and NATO over Finnish and Swedish membership in the alliance, it is time for the latter to demonstrate its strength.

To get Erdogan’s attention, the U.S. and NATO should consider moving their huge airbase or some of its functions out of Turkey, putting the issue on the NATO agenda and beginning studies on how such a move might be carried out.

The Trenchant Observer


See also,

Only force can stop Putin

“Ukraine War, April 5, 2022 (II): Force must be used to stop Putin,” The Trenchant Observer, April 5, 2922 .


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About the Author

James Rowles
"The Trenchant Observer" is edited and published by James Rowles (aka "The Observer"), an author and international lawyer who has taught International Law, Human Rights, and Comparative Law at major U.S. universities, including Harvard, Brandeis, the University of Pittsburgh, and the University of Kansas. Dr. Rowles is a former staff attorney at the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR) of the Organization of American States OAS), in Wasington, D.C., , where he was in charge of Brazil, Haiti, Mexico and the United States, and also worked on complaints from and reports on other countries including Argentina, Chile, Uruguay, El Salvador, Nicaragua, and Guatemala. As an international development expert, he has worked on Rule of Law, Human Rights, and Judicial Reform in a number of countries in Latin America, the Caribbean, Africa, the Middle East, South Asia, and the Russian Federation. In the private sector, Dr. Rowles has worked as an international attorney for a leading national law firm and major global companies, on joint ventures and other matters in a number of countries in Europe (including Russia and the Ukraine), throughout Latin America and the Caribbean, and in Australia, Indonesia, Vietnam, China and Japan. The Trenchant Observer blog provides an unfiltered international perspective for news and opinion on current events, in their historical context, drawing on a daily review of leading German, French, Spanish and English newspapers as well as the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, the Washington Post, and other American newspapers, and on sources in other countries relevant to issues being analyzed. Dr. Rowles speaks fluent English, French, German, Portuguese and Spanish, and also knows other languages. He holds an S.J.D. or Doctor of Juridical Science in International Law from Harvard University, and a Doctor of Law (J.D.) and a Master of the Science of Law (J.S.M.=LL.M.), from Stanford University. As an undergraduate, he received a Bachelor of Arts degree, also from Stanford, where he graduated “With Great Distinction” (summa cum laude) and received the James Birdsall Weter Prize for the best Senior Honors Thesis in History. In addition to having taught as a Lecturer on Law at Harvard Law School, Dr. Rowles has been a Visiting Scholar at Harvard University's Center for International Affairs (CFIA). His fellowships include a Stanford Postdoctoral Fellowship in Law and Development, the Rómulo Gallegos Fellowship in International Human Rights awarded by the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights, and a Harvard MacArthur Fellowship in International Peace and Security. Beyond his articles in The Trenchant Observer, he is the author of two books and numerous scholarly articles on subjects of international and comparative law. Currently he is working on a manuscript drawing on some the best articles that have appeared in the blog.