Ukraine War, July 13, 2022: Will Europe cave in to Putin?

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UKRAINE: THE WAR TO SAVE THE U.N. CHARTER AND INTERNATIONAL LAW

To see a list of previous articles, enter “Ukraine” in the Search Box on the upper right, on The Trenchant Observer web site, and you will see a list in chronological order.

Dispatches

1) “Gazprom sagt, dass es den Weiterbetrieb der Nord-Stream-Pipeline nicht garantieren könne,” Die Welt, den 13. Juli 2022:

English

“Gazprom says that it cannot guarantee the continued operation of the Nord Stream pipeline,” Google translation on website, Die Welt, July 13, 2022.

Analysis

Russia announced today that it wasn’t sure it would be able to resume pumping gas through the Nordstream I pipeline after the conclusion of the current 10-day shutdown for maintenance.

If Russia suddenly cuts off all gas to Germany and Europe, many fear, that could precipitate a recession in Germany and perhaps Europe as a whole.

The question arises, “Will Germany and Europe then start to limit their military and other aid to Ukraine and to pressure Ukraine to accept a ceasefire or settlement whose terms are dictated by Vladimir Putin? Those terms would necessarily entail the “cession” of Ukrainian territories to Russia.

For reasons we’ve set forth in previous articles, it is hard to see how this could be done without bringing down the entire edifice of the U.N. Charter and international law.

Perhaps that will be the outcome of the war. A victory for Russia and Putin’s frontal challenge to the existing international order based on the U.N. Charter and international law.

Such a Russian victory in Ukraine would be reminiscent of Adolf Hitler’s victories first in Czechoslovakia, with the cession of the Sudetenland to Germany, then with the invasion of Poland, and then with the progressive invasion of all of the major countries of Europe.

Facing such an imminent Russian victory in Ukraine and its consequences, however, it is always possible that NATO and other countries will finally engage in the conflict on a direct military level.

Or they might just fold, and seek and find some “exit ramp” not for Putin but rather for NATO and the EU.

What will be the outcome of this war?

Will the West grow tired of supporting Ukraine, and impatient with its consequences such as an end to the delivery of Russian gas and oil, and enter down a path of appeasement which may bring Europe “peace in our time”, in the infamous words of Neville Chamberlain following the Munich Pact in 1938?

Or will NATO and other countries get serious about imposing secondary sanctions on countries in “the South”, while entering down a path that leads to the limited use of force to stop Putin and to avoid a Russian victory in Ukraine and its consequences?

The two paths diverge.

The path taken will have fateful consequences for Europe, the world, and our civilization.

The Trenchant Observer

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See also,

Only force can stop Putin

“Ukraine War, April 5, 2022 (II): Force must be used to stop Putin,” The Trenchant Observer, April 5, 2022.

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About the Author

James Rowles
"The Trenchant Observer" is edited and published by James Rowles (aka "The Observer"), an author and international lawyer who has taught International Law, Human Rights, and Comparative Law at major U.S. universities, including Harvard, Brandeis, the University of Pittsburgh, and the University of Kansas. Dr. Rowles is a former staff attorney at the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR) of the Organization of American States OAS), in Wasington, D.C., , where he was in charge of Brazil, Haiti, Mexico and the United States, and also worked on complaints from and reports on other countries including Argentina, Chile, Uruguay, El Salvador, Nicaragua, and Guatemala. As an international development expert, he has worked on Rule of Law, Human Rights, and Judicial Reform in a number of countries in Latin America, the Caribbean, Africa, the Middle East, South Asia, and the Russian Federation. In the private sector, Dr. Rowles has worked as an international attorney for a leading national law firm and major global companies, on joint ventures and other matters in a number of countries in Europe (including Russia and the Ukraine), throughout Latin America and the Caribbean, and in Australia, Indonesia, Vietnam, China and Japan. The Trenchant Observer blog provides an unfiltered international perspective for news and opinion on current events, in their historical context, drawing on a daily review of leading German, French, Spanish and English newspapers as well as the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, the Washington Post, and other American newspapers, and on sources in other countries relevant to issues being analyzed. Dr. Rowles speaks fluent English, French, German, Portuguese and Spanish, and also knows other languages. He holds an S.J.D. or Doctor of Juridical Science in International Law from Harvard University, and a Doctor of Law (J.D.) and a Master of the Science of Law (J.S.M.=LL.M.), from Stanford University. As an undergraduate, he received a Bachelor of Arts degree, also from Stanford, where he graduated “With Great Distinction” (summa cum laude) and received the James Birdsall Weter Prize for the best Senior Honors Thesis in History. In addition to having taught as a Lecturer on Law at Harvard Law School, Dr. Rowles has been a Visiting Scholar at Harvard University's Center for International Affairs (CFIA). His fellowships include a Stanford Postdoctoral Fellowship in Law and Development, the Rómulo Gallegos Fellowship in International Human Rights awarded by the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights, and a Harvard MacArthur Fellowship in International Peace and Security. Beyond his articles in The Trenchant Observer, he is the author of two books and numerous scholarly articles on subjects of international and comparative law. Currently he is working on a manuscript drawing on some the best articles that have appeared in the blog.

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