Ukraine War, July 15, 2022: Will NATO countries back Ukraine in a protracted war?

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UKRAINE: THE WAR TO SAVE THE U.N. CHARTER AND INTERNATIONAL LAW

To see a list of previous articles, enter “Ukraine” in the Search Box on the upper right, on The Trenchant Observer web site, and you will see a list in chronological order.

Dispatches

1) Steven Erlanger, “Gaps in Arms Supplies to Ukraine Point to Countries’ Divergent Strategies; Beyond logistical issues, the uneven flow of arms to Ukraine hints at differences among allies about whether Russia should be punished or eventually accommodated,” New York Times, July 15, 2022 (12:01 a.m. ET);

2) Stefanie Bolzen, “Die Schlacht um Cherson wird die Schlacht um die Ukraine sein, und um Europa,” Die Welt, den 15. Juli 2022 (12:42 Uhr):

English

Stephanie, Bolzen, “The battle for Kherson will be the battle for Ukraine, and for Europe,” (Google translation) Die Welt, July 15, 2022;

Analysis

Steven Erlanger provides a magisterial overview of the weapons promised to Ukraine and their actual delivery, and what the degree and pace of the arms deliveries have to say about the differing war aims of different donor countries.

Behind the scenes, leaders and government officials are quietly discussing potential terms of settlement that in their view might bring the war to an end or at leaset to a ceasefire.

One has the impression that some countries like Germany, France, and Italy just want the war to end so they can get back to the way things were before the Russian invasion on February 24, 2022.

One doesn’t see in reports of these discussions or thinking behind the scenes any indication that officials who want to negotiate an end to the war soon have given any sustained thought to the feasibility or consequences of any such negotiated settlement.

They only discuss such “solutions” to the problem of ongoing Russian aggression and war crimes in broad theoretical terms, which seem to be pretty far divorced from reality. There is little evidence of the leaders and officials having grappled in detail with the terms of what might be both feasible, and desirable in view of its consequences.

Above all, very little serious thought seems to have been given to the consequences of appeasement or a Russian victory in Ukraine.

In a word, those who are talking now about a negotiated settlement and end to the war don’t seem to be serious, or to have seriously confronted the harsh realities and implications of Russia’s frontal assault on the U.N. Charter and the international legal order.

What they need to do, instead of naively talking about a potential negotiated settlement of the war, is to conduct very serious and in-depth studies of the likely consequences of a Russian victory in Ukraine, or of appeasement of Vladimir Putin by accepting a peace settlement on his terms.

The Trenchant Observer

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See also,

Only force can stop Putin

“Ukraine War, April 5, 2022 (II): Force must be used to stop Putin,” The Trenchant Observer, April 5, 2022.

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About the Author

James Rowles
"The Trenchant Observer" is edited and published by James Rowles (aka "The Observer"), an author and international lawyer who has taught International Law, Human Rights, and Comparative Law at major U.S. universities, including Harvard, Brandeis, the University of Pittsburgh, and the University of Kansas. Dr. Rowles is a former staff attorney at the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR) of the Organization of American States OAS), in Wasington, D.C., , where he was in charge of Brazil, Haiti, Mexico and the United States, and also worked on complaints from and reports on other countries including Argentina, Chile, Uruguay, El Salvador, Nicaragua, and Guatemala. As an international development expert, he has worked on Rule of Law, Human Rights, and Judicial Reform in a number of countries in Latin America, the Caribbean, Africa, the Middle East, South Asia, and the Russian Federation. In the private sector, Dr. Rowles has worked as an international attorney for a leading national law firm and major global companies, on joint ventures and other matters in a number of countries in Europe (including Russia and the Ukraine), throughout Latin America and the Caribbean, and in Australia, Indonesia, Vietnam, China and Japan. The Trenchant Observer blog provides an unfiltered international perspective for news and opinion on current events, in their historical context, drawing on a daily review of leading German, French, Spanish and English newspapers as well as the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, the Washington Post, and other American newspapers, and on sources in other countries relevant to issues being analyzed. Dr. Rowles speaks fluent English, French, German, Portuguese and Spanish, and also knows other languages. He holds an S.J.D. or Doctor of Juridical Science in International Law from Harvard University, and a Doctor of Law (J.D.) and a Master of the Science of Law (J.S.M.=LL.M.), from Stanford University. As an undergraduate, he received a Bachelor of Arts degree, also from Stanford, where he graduated “With Great Distinction” (summa cum laude) and received the James Birdsall Weter Prize for the best Senior Honors Thesis in History. In addition to having taught as a Lecturer on Law at Harvard Law School, Dr. Rowles has been a Visiting Scholar at Harvard University's Center for International Affairs (CFIA). His fellowships include a Stanford Postdoctoral Fellowship in Law and Development, the Rómulo Gallegos Fellowship in International Human Rights awarded by the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights, and a Harvard MacArthur Fellowship in International Peace and Security. Beyond his articles in The Trenchant Observer, he is the author of two books and numerous scholarly articles on subjects of international and comparative law. Currently he is working on a manuscript drawing on some the best articles that have appeared in the blog.

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