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To see a list of previous articles, enter “Ukraine” in the Search Box on the upper right, on The Trenchant Observer web site, and you will see a list in chronological order.
Dispatches
1) “Ukraine War, September 10, 2022: Ukrainian forces break through Russian lines near Kharkiv, threaten supply lines; American support of critical importance,” Trenchant Observer, September 10, 2022.;
2) Anne Applebaum, “It’s Time to Prepare for a Ukrainian Victory
The liberation of Russian-occupied territory might bring down Vladimir Putin. The Atlantic, September 11, 2022 (2:55 p.m. ET);
Analysis
Given the rout of Russian forces in the Kharkiv region, and the cur-off of supply routes to Russian forces in the Kherson region west of the Dnipo river, the following ceasefire terms might be acceptable to Ukraine.
1. Following verified confirmation of the ceasefire for 72 hours, Ukraine will guarantee the repatriation of the 24,000 Russian soldiers west of the Dnipo river in the Kherson area, and other Russian forces in occupied portions of Ukraine.
Russian troops will be allowed to return to Russia, but only without their weapons and equipment.
2. Russia undertakes to not launch cyber-attacks or any other attacks against Ukraine.
3. Russia undertakes not to interfere with gas deliveries to Ukraine or for passage through Ukraine.
4. All Russian forces in the Crimea will be repatriated to Russia, except for those equivalent in number to those that were stationed at Russian Black Sea Fleet facilities prior to February 2014.
5. Russian Black Sea Fleet facilities will be governed under a separate Ukrainian authority.
Ukraine and Russia will enter nto negotiations regarding the potential conclusion of a long-term lease agreement (25, 50 or 99 years) of the Black Sea Fleet facilities in the Crimea.
Point 5 would have to be negotiated carefully. It eould offer Russia some incentive to enter the ceasefire.
6. Reparations and war crime accountability are not affected by this ceasefire agreement.
7. Russia and Ukraine agree to the exchange of prisoners under such terms and conditions as the International Committee of the Red Cross may establish. They agree further to return the remains of deceased soldiers to their respective countries under such terms and conditions as the International Committee of the Red Cross may establish.
Such a proposal could form a solid basis for ceasefire negotiations with Russia.
The Trenchant Observer
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