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Joseph Cirincione, “”Putin says nuclear threat is no bluff. We should take him at his word,” Washington Post, September 26, 2022 (2:39 p.m. EDT);
Joseph Cirincione is author of “Nuclear Nightmares: Securing the World Before It Is Too Late.”
Cirincione, a real expert, describes the various responses the U.S. and NATO,could adopt to Russian use of a nuclear weapon in Ukraine.
He is presumably in close contact with U.S. officials.
Unfortunately, the timid and graduated first responses Cirincione describe are anemic and not likely to impress Putin and the Russians with NATO’s resolve.
Indeed, they are reminiscent of the first sanctions adopted against Russia following its seizure of the Crimea in 2014, which did not deter Putin from invading the Donbas in the summer and particularly in August 2014.
The types of initial responses Cirincione describes are emblematic of the “too little, too late” approach of the Biden Administration to deterrence through economic sanctions, or the delivery of weapons to Ukraine during the first six months of the war.
Biden needs to bring in the best and most experienced defense and diplomatic experts to develop and implement nuclear strategy to deal with Putin’s threats.
The persistent error Biden’s foreign policy team has been to approach issues through the prism of “The Rational Actor Paradigm” or fallacy, as described by Graham T. Allison, John Steinbruner, Robert Jarvis and others.
Once a nuclear weapon is detonated, the conceptual errors inherent in “The Rational Actor Model” or paradigm become decisive, and potentially catastrophic–which seems too weak a word to describe nuclear annihilation.
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