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Dispatches

1) Emily Rauhala, Kareem Fahim and Michael Birnbaum, “Turkey drops opposition to Sweden’s NATO bid on eve of summit,” Washington Post, July 10, 2023 (Updated at 6:26 p.m. EDT);

2) Andrea Rizzi y María R. Sahuquillo, “Erdogan se compromete a desbloquear la adhesión de Suecia a la OTAN; El giro de Ankara se produce en la víspera de la cumbre de la Alianza Atlántica en Vilnius, El País, el 19 de julio 2023 (Actualizado alas 16:37 EDT);

Analysis

In a major move on the international chessboard, Turkey has dropped its opposition to Sweden becoming a member of NATO.

In the grand scheme of things, this is a huge development.

Approval by the Turkish and Hungarian parliaments is now expected to proceed. After their approval, Sweden will be a member of NATO.

Turkish President Tayib Recep Erdogan could always try to negotiate for further advantages by slowing the process of approval in the Turkish parliament.

Such action would enrage his NATO partners, however, and is unlikely.

Hungary has said previously its parliament would approve Sweden’s accession if Turkey did so.

To the extent Vladimir Putin was actually motivated to invade Ukraine in 2014 and 2022 in order to prevent Ukraine from joining the EU and NATO, his decisions appear to have backfired badly.

NATO is now stronger than ever with the addition of the very capable Swedish and Finnish armed forces, and the prospect that Ukraine will join NATO in the future, probably gaining powerful security guarantees from the U.S. and NATO countries in the meantime.

At some point in the future, it is not inconceivable that Russian military and national security officials will realize what a disaster Putin’s war in Ukraine has been for Russia and its strategic military position.

At some point in the future, it is not inconceivable that they might hold Putin to account.

As the NATO leaders gather in Vilnius for their summit, Andrea Rizzi andv María R. Sahuquillo, two stellar reporters from El País,report on the details of the negotiations and understandings that led to today’s breakthrough announcement that Turkish President Tayeb Recep Erdpgan will support Sweden’s entry into NATO. They also report on other issues to be considered at the summit, particularly steps to facilitate Ukraine’s becoming a member and robust security guarantees to be given to Ukraine in the meantime.

Their reporting is succinct, detailed, and truly outstanding.

The Trenchant Observer

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