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Dispatches

1) Gordon Lubold, Michael R. Gordon, and Warren P. Strobel, “Ukraine’s Stalled Offensive Puts Biden in Uneasy Political Position; Administration’s hopes that Kyiv could negotiate with Moscow fade with slow progress on the ground,” Wall Street Journal, July 25, 023 (uodated at 12:00 am ET);

Analysis

The Wall Street Journal authors quote Biden as follows:

“My hope is and my expectation is you’ll see that Ukraine makes significant progress on their offensive and it generates a negotiated settlement somewhere along the line,” Biden said during his visit to Helsinki earlier this month.

On the critical issue of war production of munitions, they report:

One Western diplomat in Washington said the U.S. may have to accept that the war in Ukraine isn’t going to end soon, and allies need to prepare to supply Kyiv for a conflict that lasts for years.

“The only real response is an industrial mobilization that will give Ukrainians, and the Russians, a clear message that the Ukrainians will always have plenty of what they need,” the diplomat said.

The clearest signal to Vladimir Putin from the U.S., aside from President Joe Bien enforcing Putin’s “red lines”, has been the failure of the U.S., and the West generally, to take emergency action to move to a wartime footing that will guarantee the manufacture of munitions to support Ukraine over the lobglong term (5-10 years or longer).

However many times Biden and Western leaders repeat the mantra that they will continue their support of Ukraine “for as long as it takes”, the true test of Western intentions had been the actual level of production of arms and ammunition.

“For as long as it takes”–for what?

Biden and the U.S. cling to the illusion that the war will end in a negotiated ceasefire or peace settlement.

This is a dangerous illusion, one that leads to such policies as not moving to the wartime production of munitions.

As we have repeatedly pointed out, a negotiated settlement is an extremely unlikely outcome in view of the fact that it would violate peremptory norms of international law, and in all likelihood lead to the demise of the U.N. Charter- based international legal order–including in particular the prohibition of the international use of force and the recognition of territorial gains achieved by military conquest.

The Trenchant Observer

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