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Dispatches

1) “Ukraine War, September 22, 2023: Long-range Storm Shadow missiles make a difference in Ukraine; Biden approves cluster-bomb version of ATACMS,” The Trenchant Observer, September 23, 2023.

2) “Ukraine War, November 6, 2022 (III): Undisclosed White House back-channel conversations with Putin’s aides,” The Trenchant Observer, November 6, 2022.

Analysis

We concluded our previous article dealing with President Joe Biden’ decision to supply a small number of ATACMS to Ukraine as follows:

What is unknown is whether Biden is controlling the supply of long-range missile and artillery rockets from all sources to keep the number small, in deference to his fears of Putin’s nuclear threats.

Significantly, the “small number” of ATACMS promised to Zelensky are of the kind that carry cluster munitions, not the kind that could carry a warhead that could destroy the Kerch Strait bridge linking the Crimea to Russia.

Which leads us back to a critical and unanswered question:

What understandings has Biden reached with Putin in order to assuage his fears of Putin’s nuclear threats?

And another question:

Are these fears and understandings subject to periodic review and potential revision in the light of developments on the battlefield?

Particularly significant are the back-channel discussions National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan has conducted with Putin’s top national security aides. The White House has not denied the contacts described the articles cited in in the Trenchant Observer dispatch of November 6, 2022, listed above.

Key questions include the following:

1. What understandings exist regarding not furnishing arms that can attack targets in Russia?

2, Whar understandings exist regarding not furnishing weapons tgat can attack tbe Kerch Strait bridge?

3. What understandings exist, or have existed, regarding not furnishing arms that can attack targets in the Crimea?

4. What understandings exist, or have existed, regarding not furnishing fughter jets to Ukraine?

Congress should ask, or subpoena if necessary, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and other officials to answer these questions fully.

They have a direct bearing on future U.S. miikitary assistance to Ukraine.

All future military aid to Ukraine should contain language prohibiting any restrictions such as those suggested in the questions above.

The Trenchant Observer

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