プーチンの賭け

Leftist victory in Greece threatens continuation of EU sanctions against Russia

Developing See (1) Julia Smirnova und Boris Kalnóky, “Mit Tspiras hat Russland einen neuen Verbündeten; Die neue griechische Regierung verfügt über bemerkenswert enge Kontakte nach…


Putin attacks Mariupol, may seek land corridor to Crimea

Developing See (1) Julia Smirnova, “Mariupol wäre für die Separatisten wertvollster Ort; Die Angriffe auf Mariupol markieren eine neue Eskalation des Kriegs in der Ostukraine….


Negotiating with terrorists: Merkel’s proposal for a broad economic zone with Russia and its friends

See “Ukraine-Krise: Bundesregierung lockt Russland mit Handelszone; Zur Belohnung gäbe es eine Wirtschaftskooperation: Die Bundesregierung hat laut Medienbericht dem russischen Präsidenten Wladimir Putin eine Handelszone…


Poroshenko interview in NZZ; agreement to withdraw heavy weapons from Minsk September 19 demarcation line

Developing Vladimir Putin acting, through his foreign minister Sergey Lavrov, reached an agreement in Berlin this week under which Russian “separatists” in eastern Ukraine would…


REPRISE: If Putin invades Mariupol and seizes a land corridor to the Crimea, what will NATO, the U.S. and the EU do?

Originally published October 3, 2014 See Update (October 31, 2014), here. Russia’s continuing aggression in the Ukraine, and continuing appeasement in the West The ceasefire…




Go for Putin!

Commentary The contempt Vladimir Putin evidently feels for Barack Obama and the West was revealed in a split-second at the APEC summit in Beijing these…




REPRISE: If Putin invades Mariupol and seizes a land corridor to the Crimea, what will NATO, the U.S. and the EU do?

Der Spiegel reports renewed fighting around the Donetsk airport and, much more ominously, that the leader of the “Donetsk People’s Republic”, Aleksandr Zakharchenko, has threatened…


If Putin invades Mariupol and seizes a land corridor to the Crimea, what will NATO, the U.S. and the EU do?

See Update (October 31, 2014), here. Russia’s continuing aggression in the Ukraine, and continuing appeasement in the West The ceasefire in the Ukraine established by…


Putin’s threats against NATO and other countries

There are disturbing signs that Vladimir Putin’s ambitions, following his successful invasions of the Crimea and the eastern Ukraine, have become or remain boundless. He…


REPRISE II — Putin’s wager: Russia’s rogue authoritarianism versus fundamental human rights and the existing international political and legal order

Russia and the Ukraine—The Big Picture Originally published April 24, 2014 In a fatal error, Putin challenges the modern postwar international political and legal order…


Obama in Control: No lethal aid for Ukraine, no combat troops in Iraq no matter what, and lethal aid for “moderates” in Syria

Friday night fatigue can affect one’s musings on world affairs. Much of the fatigue this week comes from the news. The Russian-Ukrainian War Russia is…



The Russia-Ukraine War: Putin, cunning judo master, versus Obama, NATO, and EU, conflicted and confused; Protagonists continue battle for Ukraine and vision of world order

Developing Russian President Vladimir Putin, a cunning and brilliant tactician who has now taken on the entire international legal and political order through his invasions…


Putin’s response to new sanctions: (1) New invasion of Donbas with white truck convoy, entering without authorization or inspection; and (2) Renewed fighting (artillery and rockets) in Donetsk

Putin Escalates Crisis in Response to New Sanctions Russian President Vladimir Putin has reacted true to form, in response to the entry into force of…


Full text of new EU sanctions against Russia (September 8, 2014)

Developing See “New EU sanctions hit Russia,” EU Business, 12 September 2014 (11:10 CET). The full text of the new EU sanctions against Russia because…


TWO VASTLY DIFFERENT OUTCOMES — Conditions for lifting the new EU sanctions (once in force): (1) Ceasefire holds; or (2) All steps in Minsk Protocol on ceasefire and peace process completed

Much has been at stake in the battle within the EU over whether the new sanctions against Russia (agreed on September 5) should now enter…